{"id": "1213892618147266567", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "msg": "157\nWTPZ42 KNHC 271457\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n800 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nPolo continues to have a pretty healthy structure on geostationary\nsatellite imagery this morning, with very cold cloud tops associated\nwith robust eyewall convection. The most recent F18 SSMIS microwave\npass showed a mostly closed eyewall, albeit with some erosion on the\neast side, likely due to some residual easterly vertical wind shear.\nBoth the subjective and objective intensity estimates over the past\n6 h have increased somewhat, with the latest SATCON, DPRINT, and \nDMINT estimates between 106-113 kt. Thus, the initial intensity is \nnudged up slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. A NOAA P-3 \nHurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route and will provide \nupdated in-situ data on Polo this afternoon.\n \nPolo continues to make its turn more northward, with the latest\nestimated motion at 345 degrees at 10 kt. The hurricane should soon\nturn northward and the northeastward over the next 12-24 h as it is\nsteered between the deep-layer ridging that is centered over Mexico\nand a mid-latitude shortwave trough that will soon move into\nCalifornia. It is this short-wave that is expected to capture Polo\nas it reaches the coast of Baja California Sur, leading to further\nacceleration as the hurricane turns northeastward. While the track\nguidance this cycle is very tightly clustered near the previous\nforecast track, but are somewhat faster along this track. Thus the\nlatest NHC track forecast has been moved slightly faster and\nroughly splits the difference between the reliable HFIP Corrected\nConsensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI)\naids. Its is worth noting there remains some along-track spread in\nthe ensemble guidance, so the exact timing of landfall is more\nuncertain than usual in the 24-48 h time frame.\n \nThe intensity forecast also has some challenges. Polo has maintained \na fairly healthy appearance while its been dealing with light to \nmoderate easterly vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance now \nshows the shear decreasing over the next 12-24 h, and given the \nslightly stronger initial intensity, the latest NHC intensity \nforecast is higher than the previous one. This forecast is on the \nhigh end of the interpolated intensity guidance, and now shows Polo \nreaching the coast of the Baja California Peninsula as a 95 kt \nhurricane. It is worth mentioning the latest HAFS-B raw model output \nshows Polo could retain major hurricane intensity at landfall. Some \nweakening should occur as it moves over the rugged terrain of Baja \nCalifornia, but it is increasingly likely that Polo's second \nlandfall in mainland Mexico will also be as a (weaker) hurricane. \nRapid weakening is forecast thereafter as it moves inland over \nMexico with Polo becoming post-tropical or dissipating by 72 h.\n \nPolo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before\nit reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with\nit and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United\nStates late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly\ncontribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.\nSee products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane\nWarning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions\ncould reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early\nMonday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions\nwill likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm\nsurge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja\nCalifornia Sur tonight into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of\nthe northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next\nfew days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 22.7N 113.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 24.5N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 26.3N 112.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 28.6N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  30/0000Z 31.5N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}