{"id": "1213890258309054471", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "msg": "972\nWTPZ41 KNHC 271445\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nA fortuitous 1038 UTC NOAA-20 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer\nSuite (VIIRS) Lunar calibration image indicated that Odalys is a\nbit farther north than noted earlier.  The vertically shallow\ntropical cyclone is quickly becoming devoid of deep convection with\na small patch located well to the northeast of the exposed surface\ncenter.  Based on a blend of the UW-CIMSS objective techniques and\nthe subjective intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity\nis lowered to 50 kt.\n \nOdalys should continue to spin down quickly while moving within an\nincreasingly inhibiting surrounding atmospheric environment and\nover progressively cooler oceanic temperatures.  Subsequently,\nOdalys is forecast to lose its deep convective organization\nconvection later tonight, and become a post-tropical cyclone.  On\nMonday, the majority of the skilled guidance indicates that Odalys\nshould degenerate to a remnant low, and the NHC intensity\nforecast follows suit and agrees with the various consensus aids.\n \nOdalys' initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 005/5 kt.\nThe forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and the weakening\ncyclone should continue to move generally northward in the short\nterm. On Monday, a severely sheared, vertically tilted Odalys\nis expected to turn east-southeastward and sharply\nsouth-southeastward while being steered by the low-level flow\nproduced by a subtropical high situated to the north of the cyclone.\nThe NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous\nadvisory and lies between the HFIP HCCA and GDMI guidance.\n \nOdalys' wind radii have been adjusted based on 0455 UTC METOP-C and\na 0433 UTC METOP-B scatterometer passes.\n \nDistant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be\ntransported into the southwestern United States late this weekend\nand early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy\nrainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued\nby the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/1500Z 22.6N 123.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 23.0N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  28/1200Z 22.8N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.9N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  29/1200Z 20.6N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  30/0000Z 19.6N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  30/1200Z 19.0N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}