{"id": "1213890159916810247", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "msg": "965\nWTPZ43 KNHC 271444\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026\n900 AM CST Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nDeep convection is gradually becoming better organized in\nassociation with the depression.  There is evidence of banding over\nthe northern and western portions of the circulation, although\nthere appears to be some easterly shear over the system.  TAFB\nprovided a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt and objective\nestimates are in the 30-35 kt range.  Given the fragmented nature\nof the convective banding, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.  \nA very recent arriving WSF-M microwave overpass was very helpful \nin locating the center, which was a little north of the previous \nestimate.\n\nThe initial motion appears to be 295/4 kt, a little slower than \nestimated in the first advisory.  The depression is forecast to \nmove faster toward the west-northwest, to the south of a \ndeep-layer ridge over Mexico during the next several days.  The \ntrack guidance is in good agreement on the core of the system \nstaying well south of the coast of southern Mexico, and the NHC \ntrack forecast follows a blend of the GDM consensus aid and the HFIP \ncorrected consensus.  The new track was adjusted slightly north of \nthe previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.\n \nModerate easterly shear over the system is likely to keep \nsignificant strengthening in check during the next 12 hours, but the \nsystem is likely to become a tropical storm during that time. By \nlate tonight and Monday, a faster rate of strengthening is expected \nas shear decreases and the system moves over warm SSTs.  Much of \nthe intensity guidance shows the system becoming a hurricane in \nabout 48 hours, and the NHC wind speed forecast follows suit.  \nAround 72 hours, there is some uncertainty with regards to SSTs \nwith the track potentially moving over the cool wake of Hurricane \nPolo. Therefore, the intensity forecast during that period calls \nfor the intensity to level off, which is similar to what is shown \nby the HFIP corrected consensus. \n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/1500Z 12.7N  98.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 13.0N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 13.7N 100.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 14.6N 102.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 15.5N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  30/0000Z 16.5N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 17.3N 107.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 18.7N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  02/1200Z 19.4N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}