{"id": "1213889078380167175", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "msg": "709\nWTNT41 KNHC 271439\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026\n \nThis morning's GOES-19 Proxy-VIS satellite presentation indicates \nthat Fay's cloud pattern has changed little since yesterday, and \nthe TAFB subjective satellite intensity estimate supports 30 kt for \nthis advisory.\n \nModest northerly shear continues to impinge on the north side of\nthe cyclone, displacing the small pulsating deep bursts of \nconvection just to the south of the surface center.  The GFS/ECMWF \nstatistical SHIPS intensity guidance indicates little change in the \nshear pattern and magnitude and the thermodynamic environment \nthrough mid-week.  Therefore, the NHC forecast shows Fay \nmaintaining depression strength during the next few days.  There is \ngrowing confidence due to deterministic and AI-single model \nagreement indicating that Fay will finally lose what little \norganized convection it has held onto, and eventually open up into \na trough toward the end of the week.  The official intensity \nforecast follows this scenario and is based on the aforementioned \nSHIPS and the HFIP HCCA guidance.\n \nFay's initial motion is estimated to be south-southeastward, or \n160/3 kt.  Fay is forecast to move southwestward to \nwest-southwestward around the southeastern peripheral low-level \nflow of a subtropical high located midway between Bermuda and the \ncyclone.  A few of the deterministic models indicate slight \nstrengthening of the aforementioned ridge early in the period.  \nTherefore, a slight increase in forward speed is indicated in the \nNHC forecast beyond Tuesday, and this agrees with the better \nperforming consensus models.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/1500Z 29.3N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 28.8N  43.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 27.6N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 25.3N  45.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  30/0000Z 24.6N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 24.2N  48.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}