{"msg": "286\nAXPZ20 KNHC 271049 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Correction\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026\nCorrected Remainder of Area section \nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0945 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 260\nnm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving \nnorth at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.\nSatellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature. The imagery \nshows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the E\nsemicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 180 nm in the NW \nquadrant. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the\nnorth is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the\nnortheast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to\napproach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move \nacross the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern \nmainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected\nduring the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a \nhurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon.\nPolo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches \nwith maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja \nCalifornia Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\nFor a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with \nPolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total \nRainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\n \nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur\nduring the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward\nalong the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the\nremainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm \nwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0900 UTC, \nmoving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.\nPeak seas are to near 24 ft (7 m). Odalys's overall convective\nstructure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central \ndense overcast. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to \nstrong convection within 210 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in \nthe SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant and 150 nm in the \nNW quadrant. Odalys will maintain its present motion through\nthis evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast \nby early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next \nfew days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical \ncyclone by Mon.\nNewly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near \n12.2N 99.1W, or about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at \n27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 \nkt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate \nto strong convection from 11N to between 96W and 102W. Tropical\nDepression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and \noffshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is \nforecast during the next few days, and the depression could \nbecome a tropical storm by tonight.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov\n  for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression\n  Eighteen-E.\n \nA broad area of low pressure located about 1000 nm to the east- \nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely \nto form during the early to middle part of next week. The system \nshould move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast \nof the Hawaiian Islands.  This system has a medium chance of \ntropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the \nlatest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across \nthe southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across central Panama and \nto 08N82W  to 06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west \nof Tropical Depression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It \nresumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low \npressure near 11N140W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N\nbetween 94W-97W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and on newly formed \nTropical Depression Eighteen-E.\nThe impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.\nElsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are \noffshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds \nelsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle \nwinds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer \ndata. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the\nsouthern Gulf of California, with slight\nseas in the central and northern gulf sections. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about \n260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is \nmoving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 \nkt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 \nmb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near \n23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near\n26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near \n28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a \ntropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and \ndissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or \nabout 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM \nPDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 \nkt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 \nmb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this\nafternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W \nMon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a \nremnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N \n122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and \ndissipate early on Thu. Newly formed Tropical Depression \nEighteen-E is near 12.2N 99.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-\nnorthwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts \nto 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Eighteen-E\nwill move to near 12.7N 99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a \ntropical storm near 13.2N 100.8W late tonight with maximum \nsustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon \nafternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W late Mon night, strengthen to a \nhurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained \nwinds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and move to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue \nnight Wed morning. Eighteen-E will move to near 18.7N 109.6W late\nWed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The \nforecast waters will be impacted by very hazardous conditions, \nfor the most part, during the forecast period.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala\nnewly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm \nsouth of Acapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft \nin southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore \nwaters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin.  Moderate \nseas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of \nPanama. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to \npull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the \nweek allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western \nportion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west \nto northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next \nfew days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail \nacross the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with \nmostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys. \nAway from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure \nover the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh \nnortheast winds covering the waters west of a line from about \n30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft \nin long-period east to southeast swell.  Mostly gentle to moderate \nwinds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have \ndeveloped from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical \ncyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N \nand east of about 137W.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or \nabout 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is \nmoving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt \nwith gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. \nPolo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N \n114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N \n111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W \nTue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression \nnear 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane \nOdalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern \ntip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. \nMaximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and \nmove to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon \nafternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, \nmove to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed \nmorning and dissipate early on Thu. \nThe Special Features broad area of low pressure may evolve \ninto a tropical cyclone that moves east-norheastward across the\nwestern part of the area during the upcoming week. If this scenario \ntranspires, then winds and seas will be impacted significantly \nacross that portion of the area. Please keep up with the latest \nTropical Weather Outlooks for updates on formation probabilities of \nthis next possible system. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213843926779527175", "issued": "2026-09-27T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213843926779527175"}