{"id": "1213821641016803335", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T09:00:00Z", "msg": "181\nWTPZ41 KNHC 270855\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026\n\nOdalys remains a low-end Category 1 hurricane, but continues to \nrapidly weaken. The system's overall convective structure has \ndegenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast, with \ncloud-top temperatures ranging between -65\u00b0C and -70\u00b0C just north of \nthe center. The latest subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was \n4.5/77 kt, but the final T-number was 3.5/55 kt, which aligns better \nwith the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging between \n53 and 65 kt, further suggesting Odalys' weakening trend. Based on a \nblend of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt.  \nThe ASCAT from around 0435Z still had 57 kt vectors, and given the \nlow bias of ASCAT at those wind speeds, this supports keeping \nOdalys a hurricane for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward at 360/7 kt. Little \nchange has been made to the track reasoning, as Odalys is expected \nto continue northward while a deep-layer trough steers the \nvertically coherent cyclone. Once the system decouples, motion is \nforecast to turn abruptly south-southeastward in 24 to 36 hours \nunder the steering influence of a low-level ridge positioned to the \nnorthwest. The latest track guidance from the HCCA and GDMI ensemble \nconsensus aids demonstrates a sharper turn southeastward, and the \nupdated NHC track forecast reflects this while closely following the \nprevious advisory.\n\nOver the next few days, Odalys will face an increasingly hostile \nenvironment marked by persistent vertical wind shear, dry \nsurrounding air, and significantly cooler ocean temperatures. As a \nresult, rapid weakening is expected throughout the forecast period. \nBoth the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite models indicate Odalys \nwill transition to a post-tropical cyclone as early as 24 hours.\n \nDistant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be\ntransported into the southwestern United States late this weekend\nand early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy\nrainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued\nby the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/0900Z 21.9N 123.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 22.4N 123.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 22.6N 122.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  28/1800Z 22.0N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  29/0600Z 21.0N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  29/1800Z 19.9N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  30/0600Z 19.1N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}