{"id": "1213820639421071367", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T09:00:00Z", "msg": "071\nWTNT41 KNHC 270850\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026\n\nFay's convection has redeveloped once again. Since the last \nadvisory, an area of deep convection located just south of the \nstorm's low-level center has grown in size, with cloud-top \ntemperatures nearing -80\u00b0C at times. The latest subjective Dvorak \nintensity estimate from TAFB rated Fay at 1.5/25 kt, while objective \nanalysis from UW-CIMSS estimates the storm's strength between 29-36 \nkt. Given Fay's pulsating cycles of convection, the initial \nintensity was held steady at 30 kt, with the caveat that brief \nperiods of slightly stronger max winds are entirely possible.\n\nInitial motion remains slow at 170/3 kt. However, Fay is expected to \ngain forward speed soon as it escapes the influence of the Atlantic \nsubtropical high and is picked up by the prevailing easterlies early \nnext week. This will cause a turn to the southwest and then west. \nThe latest track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous \nadvisory, reflecting only a slight rightward shift to blend better \nwith HCCA guidance.\n\nAs long as Fay remains in an environment characterized by warm SSTs, \nits cycles of pulsating convection are expected to continue. It was \nanticipated that strong vertical wind shear would work to break \napart Fay's circulation, but the storm has proven resilient. Global \nforecast models still suggest that convection will completely \ndissipate by the middle of next week at the latest, before Fay opens \nup into a trough shortly thereafter. Little was changed in the \nlatest intensity forecast. Fay is expected to waver right around \ntropical depression or even weak tropical storm strength as \nconvection pulsates, before eventually dissipating for good.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/0900Z 29.2N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 28.9N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 27.9N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 26.5N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 25.2N  45.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  29/1800Z 24.3N  46.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 23.6N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}