{"id": "1213819361512357895", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T09:00:00Z", "msg": "935\nWTPA42 PHFO 270844\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  27\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026\n\nNolo appears to be gradually strengthening since the last aircraft \nmission several hours ago.  The eye is becoming a little better \ndefined and convection has been increasing over the southern and \nsouthwestern portions of the circulation.  The hurricane has fairly \nwell-defined upper-level outflow over all quadrants.  Using a blend \nof the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and the various \nobjective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity \nis increased to 85 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter \naircraft is scheduled to investigate Nolo later this morning to \ncheck on the intensity of the system.\n\nThe hurricane continues moving mainly westward or just slightly \nsouth of westward, at around 260/8 kt.  Nolo should move mainly \nwestward on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next 24 \nhours or so. After that, the system is likely to turn northwestward \ndue to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low near 165W/170W.  \nLater in the forecast period, a turn back toward the west is \nexpected as Nolo rotates around the northern portion of the low.  \nThe official track forecast is similar to the previous one except \nslightly slower in the 4-5 day time frame.  This is close to the \nlatest model consensus.\n\nNolo should remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for \nthe next day or two.  This, along with a sufficiently warm ocean, \nshould result in the system strengthening into a major hurricane \nwithin the next 36 hours.  Later in the forecast period, the SHIPS \nmodel output shows a significant increase in shear, so weakening is \nlikely from 48 to 96 hours.  Around the end of the period, the \nshear may relax and potentially allow from some restrengthening.  \nThe official forecast is on the high end of the model guidance \nenvelope.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian \nIslands through the weekend, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands \nshould continue to monitor the progress of Nolo.\n \n2. Rain bands will continue through tonight across the Big Island\nand Maui, though the showers are expected to gradually diminish in\nintensity and frequency through Sunday. Additional areas of flooding\nand mudslides will be possible, especially in areas of steep terrain\nacross the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island and\neastern Maui.\n \n3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big\nIsland's coastline through the weekend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/0900Z 16.5N 157.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 16.5N 158.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 17.0N 160.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 18.1N 162.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 19.8N 163.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  29/1800Z 21.5N 163.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 22.5N 164.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z 22.8N 165.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  02/0600Z 22.8N 168.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}