{"msg": "594\nAXNT20 KNHC 270459\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo is centered near 19.6N 23.2W at \n27/0000 UTC, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt within 90 \nnm across the NE semicircle. Peak seas are near 16 ft in the NE \nquadrant. Gonzalo remnants are a sheared system with scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection extending \nwell NE of the center, from 19.5N to 24N between 16W and 23W. The \nremnant low of Gonzalo will continue to move N-NW and away from \nthe Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, while gradually \nweakening. S to SE swell generated by Gonzalo and the regional \nmonsoonal winds are expected to continue to affect portions of the\nCabo Verde Islands overnight while gradually diminishing through \nSunday morning. \nPlease read the latest area forecasts for the Post-Tropical \nremnants of Gonzalo issued by MeteoFrance at\nwwmis.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 66W, south of 18N, moving west \nat 10 to 15 kt. The wave has become significantly sheared by an\nupper level low over the NE Caribbean. No significant convection \nis depicted over water at this time near this wave. \nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 82W-83W, S \nof 16N, extending across western Panama, moving west near 10 kt. \nModerate convection associated with this wave is inland and along\nthe coasts of Central America from western Panama to central\nNicaragua. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Mauritania near\n17N16W and extends to the remnant low of Gonzalo near 19.5N23W\nthen southwestward to 09.5N33W to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from \n09N40W to 12N55W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 20W and 36W.\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N \nto 12.5N between 48W and 61W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA dissipating frontal boundary extends across the basin from the\nwestern tip of Cuba to the NE Mexican coast along 24.5N. Widely \nscattered clusters of moderate convection are within 75 nm S of \nthis boundary. Isolated weak showers are elsewhere to the N across\nnorthwest and north-central portions. The upper level trough\nacross the basin in recent days has weakened considerable and\ndrifted SE and now extends from central Florida southwestward\nacross SE portions and the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate \nconvection is also along and ahead a surface trough across the \nwestern Yucatan Peninsula and moving into the immediate coastal \nwaters. Surface observations indicate that a weak 1014 mb high \ncenter has shifted southward into the NE Gulf offshore of the \nFlorida-Alabama border. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail\nacross the basin with a few small zones of moderate E winds \noccurring N of the front offshore of Louisiana and across the \nupper Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 3 ft in these areas and \nless than 3 ft elsewhere.\n\nFor the forecast, light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate \nseas, will prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas will \ngradually increase to gentle to moderate speeds Mon, and to \nmoderate to fresh speeds Tue night through Thu night, as high\npressure shifts into the eastern Gulf and a frontal system moves\ninto the Central Plains. Slight seas basin-wide will build to \nmoderate Wed night through Thu following the increase in winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weaker than normal pressure gradient across the western Atlantic\nand Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades \nover most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are\noccurring across the waters S of 13.5N between NW Venezuela and NE\nColombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. \nModerate winds follow the tropical wave and extend into the\nWindward Islands. Seas are 2 to 4 f there. Elsewhere light to\ngentle winds prevail with seas 3 ft or less. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to\nmoderate trades across the Caribbean through Mon night. High\npressure will build E of the Bahamas on Tue, which will result in\ntrades reaching moderate to fresh speeds basin-wide. Seas will be\nslight to moderate through the period.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Post-\nTropical Cyclone Gonzalo. \nLarge N to NE swell generated by Low pressure off the East Coast\nof the U.S. and associated frontal system continues to dominate \nthe waters N of 24N and W of 70W, becoming NW swell N of 25N \nbetween 64W and 70W. This swell has peaked in the past 24 hours \nand is beginning to subside, with maximum seas now 10-11 ft\nbetween 29N and 31N, except higher in the Gulfstream. This swell\nwill continue to gradually subside through Mon, while gradually\nbecoming more NW to N, and propagating to the waters near 60W by\nlate Mon.\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.6N 43.9W at 27/0300, \nmoving S at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak\nseas to 10 ft are within 60 nm N of center, while seas of 6 to 10\nft are found across the area N of 28N between 40W and 47W.\nNumerous moderate to strong convection has recently erupted within\n120 nm across the SW semicircle.\nA vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the\nU.S. supports the deep low pressure off the NE Atlantic coast, \nand supports a cold front across the western Atlantic waters\nextending through 31N68W through the central Bahamas and into \nwestern Cuba. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated \nstrong convection is ongoing E of this front, from NE Cuba and NW \nHispaniola through the Turks and Caicos, to the area between the \nfront and 30N72W. Moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds \ngenerally prevail E of the front from 21N north-northeastward to \nbeyond 31N and W of 62W. Seas are 4 to 9 ft in northerly swell \ndescribed above, highest N of 27N. To the east, a surface trough \nsupported by a mid-level low is inducing numerous moderate \nconvection from 26N to 30N between 55W and 60W. Moderate to \nlocally fresh S winds and seas 5 to 7 ft are present in the \nvicinity of this trough. To the SE, a belt of gentle to moderate \ntrades prevails from 10N to 21N W of 34W to the Lesser Antilles, \nwhere seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE winds \nprevail N of the monsoon trough to 24N between 24W and 33W, where \nseas are 7 to 10 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly \ngentle winds prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will \nwill reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before\nstarting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms\nare expected along and ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh SW \nwinds are expected E of the front through the remainder of the \nweekend before diminishing Mon. Large northerly swell behind the \nfront will gradually subside through Mon. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213775097459245063", "issued": "2026-09-27T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213775097459245063"}