{"msg": "018\nAXPZ20 KNHC 270348\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 \nnm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 27/0300 UTC, moving northwest \nat 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. Satellite \nimagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm in the N \nsemicircle and 90 nm in the S semicircle. Polo will maintain its \ncurrent motion through tonight. A northward turn is expected on \nSunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Mon. On the \nforecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of \nBaja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Mon \nnight and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early \nTue. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the\nnext few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane as it \napproaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of \n10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall \nmay produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially \nin areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast \nrainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather \nService Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\n \nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will \nspread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the \nBaja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal \nflooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm \nwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0300 UTC, \nmoving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.\nOdalys continues to rapidly weaken. Satellite imagery depicts \nthat the hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an\nirregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of \nthe deeper convection displaced north of the center. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the N\nsemicircle and 60 nm in the S semicircle. A general northward to\nnorth- northeastward motion is expected to continue through this\nevening, followed by a sharp turn to the south-southeast by \nearly next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next several \ndays, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by \nMon.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nGale Warning (Invest EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue \nto develop in association with an area of low pressure south of \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is \nanticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a \ntropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so.\nA Gale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds \nassociated with this low later Sun into Mon offshore Oaxaca and \nGuerrero. In addition, this system is likely to bring very heavy \nrainfall over portions of Guatemala and Southern Mexico through \ntonight, which may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and \nmudslides.Please refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to\nthe west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast \nof southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation within the next 48 hours.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across \nthe southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across northern Costa Rica,\nto 10N85W to low pres, Invest EP90, to 13.5N105W. It resumes \nto the southwest of Polo at 16N118W to 10N130W to low pressure \nnear 12N140W 1006 mb and beyond 140W. Numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 83W-96W, and \nalso from 04N to 11N between 131W-140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which \nhas prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. \nThe impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.\nElsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are \noffshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds \nelsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle \nwinds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the\noffshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight\nseas in the central and northern gulf sections. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or\nabout 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is \nmoving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with\ngusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb.\nPolo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N \n114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near \n25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then\nmove inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N \n108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed.\nHurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of \nthe southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving \nnorth at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85\nkt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will\nweaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move\nto 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to\n22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N\n122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to \nnear 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed.\nAn area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec \ncontinues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm\nactivity increases. Additional development of the system is \nanticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a \ntropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. \nThis system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west- \nnorthwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern\nand southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for \nwaters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in \nassociation with this system. There is a high chance of tropical \nformation of this low within the next 48 hours. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low\npressure, Invest EP90, organizes southwest of the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. \nModerate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near\nthe Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the \narea, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and \nlocally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through \nthe weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with\nmostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. \nOutside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward \nover the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it\nand Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters \nwest of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas \nwith these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast\nswell.  Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although \na swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N \nand west of about 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad \narea of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or\nabout 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is \nmoving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with\ngusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb.\nPolo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N \n114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near \n25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then\nmove inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N \n108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane \nOdalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern\ntip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt.\nMaximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the \nminimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a \ntropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N \n123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W\nMon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon \nevening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N \n122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed.\nAn area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec \ncontinues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm \nactivity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the\nnext day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the \nwest-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel \nto the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning \nhas been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting \nSun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high \nchance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 \nhours. \nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 \nmiles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming \norganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive \nfor development of this system, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The \nsystem should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-\nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. There is a low chance of \ntropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance \nover the next 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213761189927649287", "issued": "2026-09-27T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213761189927649287"}