{"id": "1213750840440717319", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T03:00:00Z", "msg": "716\nWTPA42 PHFO 270255\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  26\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026\n\nNolo is sending mixed signals about its organization in both\nsatellite and aircraft data at this time. In satellite imagery,\nthe central convective tops have cooled and become more symmetric \naround the center. However, as this has happened, the eye has \nbecome less distinct. In aircraft data, the Air Force Reserve \nHurricane Hunter reported that the central pressure has dropped to \nnear 969 mb.  However, the maximum 700 mb flight-level winds \nreported so far are 77 kt, and the aircraft reported that the \neyewall was ragged. Given the conflicting signals, the initial \nintensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 80 kt.\n \nThe hurricane is now moving faster toward the west or 265/7 kt. A \nfaster westward motion is expected for the next 24 h, keeping the \ncore of the hurricane well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.  \nAfter that, Nolo should turn northwestward between a ridge to the \neast and a mid- to upper-level low to the northwest of Hawaii, with \nthis motion continuing until about the 72 h point. The dynamical \nmodels suggest the circulation of Nolo may merge with this low, \nwith the resulting system continuing westward on the south side of \na mid-level ridge to the north. The new forecast track is similar \nto the previous track and lies near the center of the track \nguidance envelope.\n\nNolo is moving westward toward a pocket of higher ocean heat content\nsouthwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and the vertical wind shear is\nforecast to weaken during the next 24-36 h. This should allow some \nstrengthening during this time, and the new intensity forecast \nfollows the regional hurricane models in forecasting Nolo to become \na major hurricane.  It should be noted that while the SHIPS models \nare not as bearish on intensification as they were last night, they \nkeep the system well below major hurricane strength.  After 36 h, \nNolo should weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear caused by \nthe aforementioned upper low/trough.  By 96-120 h, the GFS and \nECMWF forecast Nolo to merge with the upper-level low, but do so in \na way that leaves the tropical cyclone core more or less intact and \nallow the storm to maintain its intensity. This is supported \nby the regional hurricane models. Thus, the intensity forecast \nkeeps the system as a hurricane at those times. Overall, the new \nintensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast.\n \nNow that Nolo is moving faster toward the west, the Tropical Storm \nWarning has been discontinued for Hawaii County, and the Tropical \nStorm Warning has been discontinued for Maui County.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Nolo is moving westward away from the Big Island of Hawaii, and \nthe tropical cyclone watches and warnings for Hawaii have been \ndiscontinued. However, strong and gusty winds are expected for all \nof the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend, and interests in the \nHawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Nolo.\n \n2. Rain bands will continue through tonight across the Big Island \nand Maui, though the showers are expected to gradually diminish in \nintensity and frequency through Sunday. Additional areas of flooding \nand mudslides will be possible, especially in areas of steep terrain \nacross the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island and \neastern Maui.\n \n3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big\nIsland's coastline through the weekend.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/0300Z 16.7N 156.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 16.6N 157.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 16.9N 159.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 19.2N 162.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  29/1200Z 20.8N 163.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 22.4N 164.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z 23.1N 166.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  02/0000Z 23.1N 169.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}