{"id": "1213750545221451783", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T03:00:00Z", "msg": "695\nWTPZ41 KNHC 270254\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nOdalys continues to rapidly weaken. Satellite imagery depicts that\nthe hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an\nirregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of the\ndeeper convection displaced north of the center. This is clear\nevidence of strong vertical wind shear undercutting the outflow\nlayer. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB came in at\nT4.5/77 kt, but objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue\nto fall, ranging from 63\u201366 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the\ninitial intensity is lowered to 70 kt, which may still be generous.\n \nInitial motion is estimated due north at 360/6 kt. Little change has\nbeen made to the track reasoning. Odalys is expected to continue\nnorthward as a deep-layer trough steers the vertically coherent\ncyclone. Once the system decouples, motion should turn abruptly\nsouth-southeastward in 24 to 36 h under the steering influence of a\nlow-level ridge positioned to the northwest. The updated NHC track\nforecast closely tracks the previous advisory, aligned with the HCCA\nand GDMI ensemble consensus aids.\n \nOver the next few days, Odalys will encounter an increasingly\nhostile environment, as the strong vertical wind shear is unlikely\nto abate, and the hurricane is already surrounded by an abundance\nof dry air while traversing through significantly cooler sea\nsurface temperatures. This will ultimately result in Odalys rapidly\nweakening throughout the forecast period, becoming a post-tropical\ncyclone in about 36 h, if not sooner, as indicated by the latest\nsimulated satellite forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF runs.\n \nDistant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be\ntransported into the southwestern United States late this weekend\nand early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy\nrainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued\nby the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/0300Z 21.1N 123.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 21.9N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 22.3N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 22.1N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  29/0000Z 21.2N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  29/1200Z 20.1N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  30/0000Z 19.2N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}