{"id": "1213748874163453959", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-27T03:00:00Z", "msg": "600\nWTPZ42 KNHC 270245\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Polo during the \nlast few hours and found that although it has weakened, the system \nremains a major hurricane. The highest flight-level winds measured \nby the plane on its last pass through Polo were 114 kt, while the \nminimum pressure measured by a dropsonde was 949 mb. Based on these \ndata, the intensity of Polo is set at 105 kt. The NOAA aircraft also \nconfirmed that Polo's inner core has expanded, and reported that \nthe eyewall of the hurricane is open on the north side of the \ncirculation.\n\nPolo is still heading northwestward, moving around the western edge \nof a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Polo will turn \nnorthward tomorrow, and then northeastward on Monday as it \ncontinues to move around the ridge and becomes increasingly \naffected by a mid- to upper-level trough moving in from the \nnorthwest. The largest source of uncertainty in the forecast \ncontinues to be the forward speed of Polo as it makes its expected \nnortheastward turn between the aforementioned synoptic features. The \nmodel spread remains higher than unusual between 48 and 72 h, and \nconfidence in this portion of the forecast is low. The NHC \nforecast is still generally close to GDM and HCCA, which are on the \nfaster end of the guidance, and only minor adjustments were made to \nthe official forecast with this advisory.\n\nContinued steady weakening is expected during the next day or two \ngiven Polo's degraded structure and the expectation that it will \ncontinue to encounter moderate vertical wind shear and move into a \ndrier surrounding environment. However, Polo is still expected to be \na hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. \nRapid weakening is likely once the hurricane makes landfall, and \nPolo will likely dissipate over mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. \n \nPolo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before\nit reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with\nit and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United\nStates late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly\ncontribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.\nSee products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane\nWarning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions\ncould reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early\nMonday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions \nwill likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm \nsurge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds. \n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja\nCalifornia Sur Sunday night into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of\nthe northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next\nseveral days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 20.7N 113.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 22.4N 114.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 24.2N 113.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 25.8N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  29/1200Z 27.6N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 29.7N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}