{"msg": "985\nAXNT20 KNHC 262332\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo is centered near 19.3N 23.3W at\n26/2100 UTC or 160 nm N of Sal Cabo Verde, moving NNW at 6 kt.\nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained\nwind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.  Peak seas are near 18 \nft in the NE quadrant. Gonzalo is a sheared storm with numerous \nmoderate isolated strong convection extending from 18N to 28N \nbetween 16.5W and 20.5W. On the forecast track, the center will \ncontinue to move away from northeastern portions of the Cabo Verde\nIslands today. Additional weakening is forecast, and Gonzalo is \nexpected to become a remnant low in the next 12-24 hours. Swells \ngenerated by Gonzalo are expected to affect portions of the Cabo \nVerde Islands through today before diminishing Sunday. These \nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and \nPublic Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nVery Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N68W \nthrough the Central Bahamas and into Cuba. Strong low pressure \noff the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. has produce gale to \nstorm force N to NE winds pointing toward Florida and the SE U.S. \ncoast, and generating large swell. This swell is propagating into \nthe area behind the cold front, producing seas of 8 to 12 ft \ngenerally to the N of 26W and W of 65W. Rough seas will follow the\nfront through later this afternoon, before starting to subside \nthrough Sun morning.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 64W, south of 18N, moving west \nat near 10 kt.No significant convection is depicted at this time \nin association to this wave. \nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 82W, S of \n16N, extending across Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Convection\nassociated with this wave has moved well inland over Central\nAmerica. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 14N22W to 08N42W. The ITCZ \nextends from 08N41W to 11N61W. Aside from convection associated \nwith Gonzalo, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to\n14N between 22W and 40W, and from 10N to 15N between 49W and 60W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA dissipating frontal boundary extends across the basin from the\nwestern tip of Cuba to just offshore Tampico, Mexico. Scattered\nmoderate convection is within 30 nm of this boundary. Scattered\nmoderate convection is also being induced by a surface trough in\nthe central Bay of Campeche. Gentle or weaker winds and slights\nseas prevail through the basin. \nFor the forecast, light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate \nseas, will prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas will \ngradually increase from the early to the middle part of next week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic\nand Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades \nover most of the basin. Seas are 2 ft or less in the NW and 3 to \n5 ft elsewhere. The eastern end of the Eastern Pacific monsoon \ntrough is supporting a cluster of scattered showers and \nthunderstorms offshore of central and western Colombia. Scattered \nmoderate convection is present across the waters between Jamaica \nand Cuba.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate \nto fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to \nmoderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the\nNW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Post-\nTropical Cyclone Gonzalo and on significant swell propagating \nsouthward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to \n65W.\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.8N 43.9W at 26/2100\nUTC or 970 nm WSW of the Azores, moving S at 2 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the latest HIGH\nSEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest\nFay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nA vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the\nU.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,\nand a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from from\n31N68W through the central Bahamas and into Cuba. Numerous strong\nconvection is ongoing E of this front, from NE Cuba through the\nTurks and Caicos, then N of 23N between 65W 72W. \nModerate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 23N and ahead of \nthe front to 62W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in N swell. Behind the\nfront, moderate NW to N winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in \nmostly N to NE swell. To the east, a surface trough supported by a\nmid-level low is inducing numerous moderate convection from 24N \nto 30N between 54W and 62W. Moderate lo locally fresh winds and \nseas 4 to 6 ft are present in the vicinity of this trough. To the\nSE, a belt of moderate trades prevails from 10N to 21N W of 40W \nto the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, \nmoderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail S of the monsoon trough to\n24N between 19W and 30W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell \nfrom Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will \nreach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before starting to\nweaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected\nalong the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are expected \neast of the front through the remainder of the weekend before \ndiminishing. Rough seas behind the front will gradually subside \nthrough the remainder of the weekend. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213710773965815815", "issued": "2026-09-26T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213710773965815815"}