{"msg": "229\nAXPZ20 KNHC 262144\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 18.7N 112.5W at 26/2100 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150\nkt. Peak seas are near 40 ft (12.5 m). Polo is a powerful \nCategory 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\nNumerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Polo\nis expected to make a gradual turn toward the north Sun, then\nturn NE Mon. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach\nthe west coast of Baja California Sur Mon, move across the\npeninsula Mon night, then approach NW mainland Mexico by early\nTue. \nPolo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with\nmaximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California \nSur. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete \ndepiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see \nthe National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic \navailable at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\n \nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will \nspread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the \nBaja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal \nflooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 20.5N 123.6W at 26/2100 UTC,\nmoving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.\nPeak seas are near 30 ft (9.5 m). Numerous moderate convection is\nwithin 90 nm of the center. Odalys is now a Category 1 hurricane\non the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and rapid weakening \nis forecast over the next several days. Odalys is anticipated to\nbecome a post-tropical cyclone by early next week. A general\nnorth to north-northeast motion is expected this weekend,\nfollowed by a sharp turn to the south-southeast by early next\nweek.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nGale Warning (Invest EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue \nto develop in association with an area of low pressure south of \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is \nanticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a \ntropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. A\nGale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds associated\nwith this low later Sun into Mon offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. \nIn addition, this system is likely to bring very heavy rainfall \nover portions of Guatemala and Southern Mexico through tonight, \nwhich may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and \nmudslides.Please refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to\nthe west- northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast \nof southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation within the next 48 hours.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 09N83W to 09N90W to 13N100W.\nIt then resumes S of Odalys from 12N127W to 13N140W. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of 96W and from\n01N to 09N W of 127W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which \nhas prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. \nThe impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.\nElsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are \noffshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds \nelsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle \nwinds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the\noffshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight\nseas in the central and northern gulf. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.9N 111.7W at 8 AM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 928 mb. Polo will move to 18.9N 112.8W this evening, \n20.5N 113.7W Sun morning, 22.2N 114.0W Sun evening, 23.9N 113.7W \nMon morning, 25.6N 112.7W Mon evening, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 27.4N 110.8W Tue morning. Polo will weaken to a \ntropical depression while moving inland over Chihuahua early Wed.\nHurricane Odalys is near 19.8N 123.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving\nnorth at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to \n110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Odalys will \nmove to 20.7N 123.6W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 21.9N 123.3W Sun morning, 22.6N 123.0W Sun evening, weaken \nto a remnant low near 22.4N 122.6W Mon morning, 21.7N 122.3W Mon \nevening, and 20.5N 122.0W Tue morning. Odalys will change little \nin intensity as it moves west of the Revillagigedo Islands early\nWed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec \ncontinues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm \nactivity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the\nnext day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the \nwest-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel \nto the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning \nhas been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting\nSun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high \nchance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 \nhours. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low\npressure, EP90, organizes SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  \nOtherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas \nprevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of \nPanama. \nFor the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the \narea, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and \nlocally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through \nthe weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with\nmostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. \nOutside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward \nover the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it\nand Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters \nwest of a line from about 30N120W to 15N140W. Seas with these \nwinds are 5 to 7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are \nelsewhere, although a swath of fresh SW winds have developed from\n05N to 10N W of 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad area\nof rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.9N 111.7W at 8 AM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 928 mb. Polo will move to 18.9N 112.8W this evening, \n20.5N 113.7W Sun morning, 22.2N 114.0W Sun evening, 23.9N 113.7W \nMon morning, 25.6N 112.7W Mon evening, and weaken to a tropical \nstorm near 27.4N 110.8W Tue morning. Polo will weaken to a \ntropical depression while moving inland over Chihuahua early Wed.\nHurricane Odalys is near 19.8N 123.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving\nnorth at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to \n110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Odalys will \nmove to 20.7N 123.6W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 21.9N 123.3W Sun morning, 22.6N 123.0W Sun evening, weaken \nto a remnant low near 22.4N 122.6W Mon morning, 21.7N 122.3W Mon \nevening, and 20.5N 122.0W Tue morning. Odalys will change little \nin intensity as it moves west of the Revillagigedo Islands early\nWed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec \ncontinues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm \nactivity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the\nnext day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the \nwest-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel \nto the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning \nhas been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting\nSun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high \nchance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 \nhours. \nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form \nwithin the next day or two about 1000 miles to the east- \nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are \nexpected to be conducive for development of the system, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle \npart of next week. The system is should move generally \nnortheastward. There is a low chance of tropical formation within\nthe next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213689643788992519", "issued": "2026-09-26T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213689643788992519"}