{"id": "1213678868485144583", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T21:00:00Z", "msg": "720\nWTPA42 PHFO 262049\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  25\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nNolo still appears to be struggling with intrusions of dry mid-level \nair. After the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported the eyewall was \nclosed earlier this morning, recent vortex messages and radar images \nfrom South Point (PHWA) show the eyewall is once again open to the \nnorth. In addition, the minimum central pressure has risen slightly \nto 977 mb, and the peak 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the \naircraft was 83 kt in the northwest quadrant. Based on these \ndevelopments, the initial intensity is adjusted to 80 kt.\n \nRecent aircraft and radar fixes indicate the hurricane is now slowly \nmoving just south of due west (260/4 kt). A faster westward motion \naway from the Big Island of Hawaii is expected during the next day \nor so as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hawaii. An \nupper-level trough currently to the northwest of the Hawaiian \nIslands is expected to amplify early next week, which should cause \nNolo to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and \nTuesday. The models agree that Nolo will be clear of the main \nHawaiian Islands by the time it makes this turn. On day 5, Nolo is \nforecast to resume a westward motion along the southern extent of a \nbuilding ridge over the central Pacific. This track forecast is \nsimilar to but slightly faster than the previous prediction, \ngenerally falling between the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.\n\nNolo is moving westward toward a pocket of higher ocean heat content \nsouthwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and the vertical wind shear is \nforecast to weaken during the next 24-36 h. If the hurricane can \nsolidify a more resilient inner core, several skillful models \n(including Google DeepMind, HAFS-A/B, and HCCA) suggest that Nolo \ncould intensify into a major hurricane on Sunday or Monday. An \nalternate scenario is that continued dry air intrusions cause Nolo \nto miss its window before increasingly southwesterly shear beyond 48 \nh induces a weakening trend. For now, the NHC intensity forecast \ncontinues to favor the stronger GDMI and HCCA solutions, which both \nhave performed well for this event so far. Then, steady weakening \nis anticipated during the 60-120 h forecast period, generally \nfollowing a blend of the HCCA and IVCN aids. \n\nNow that Nolo is moving away from the Big Island of Hawaii, the \nHurricane Watch has been discontinued, but the Tropical Storm \nWarning remains in effect for Hawaii County. \n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Nolo has begun to move westward away from the Big Island of \nHawaii, where tropical storm conditions are occurring and will \ncontinue into tonight, especially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big \nIsland and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant, \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in \nareas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of \nthe Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser \nrainfall totals are expected.  \n \n3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big\nIsland's coastline through the weekend.\n \n4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where \ntropical-storm-force gusts are occurring in areas of steep terrain. \nStrong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands \nthrough the weekend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/2100Z 16.7N 156.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 157.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 16.8N 158.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 17.2N 160.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 18.4N 162.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  29/0600Z 20.2N 163.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 21.9N 164.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 23.2N 166.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  01/1800Z 23.0N 168.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}