{"id": "1213676698999816199", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T21:00:00Z", "msg": "395\nWTNT41 KNHC 262038\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nThe convection around Fay has been mostly stripped away by the wind\nshear and the dry air in the environment. The latest TAFB Dvorak\nfix was T2.0/30 kt and the objective intensity estimate is in the\nrange of 29-39 kt. Given that there has been little change in the \nintensity estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt \nfor this advisory.\n \nThe cyclone is now slowly moving towards the south, at 180/2 kt. Fay \nis expected to continue to move southward into the southern flank of \nthe subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, the depression \nshould turn westward due to the large-scale easterly flow, but there \nis still some uncertainty in the timing of this turn. The current \nNHC forecast track is similar to the previous one with some small \nadjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.\n \nThe intensity forecast continues to have a high level of \nuncertainty as Fay is still over favorably warm sea-surface \ntemperatures. However, vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air \ncontinue to hinder the depression and preventing a more organized \nstructure from developing. Both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS \nstatistical analysis have mid-level relative humidity less than 40 \npercent for the next several days. Convection is likely to continue \nto pulse up and down, but the current NHC intensity forecast \nfollows the trend of the previous one showing little change in \nstrength with only minor changes made. This forecast continues to \nmaintain Fay as a tropical depression until it become post-tropical \nand dissipates by the middle of next week. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/2100Z 29.8N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 29.6N  43.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 28.9N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 27.8N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 26.5N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  29/0600Z 25.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 24.1N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 23.4N  51.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}