{"id": "1213675918780465159", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T21:00:00Z", "msg": "323\nWTPZ41 KNHC 262034\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026\n\nOdalys continues to quickly weaken this afternoon. On satellite the \nhurricane's structure has evolved into an irregularly shaped central \ndense overcast with evidence of south-southwesterly shear \nundercutting the outflow layer, which is now estimated above 35 kt \nfrom the latest UW-CIMSS analysis. A WSFM microwave image available \nafter the prior advisory also no longer shows an eyewall on the 89 \nGHz channel as the storm becomes increasingly tilted downshear with \nheight. The 18 UTC TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is still a CI \n5.0/90 kt, but the objective intensity estimates continue to fall, \nranging from 63-78 kt. A blend of the data yields an intensity of  \n80 kt for this advisory. The shear over the next few days is not \nexpected to abate, and the hurricane is already surrounded by \nabundant dry air as it also moves towards cooler sea-surface \ntemperatures. Thus, continued rapid weakening is forecasted, and the \nlatest forecast still indicates Odalys becoming a post-tropical \ncyclone in 48 h. However, this could occur even sooner than \nforecast, as indicated by the latest simulated satellite forecast \nfrom both the GFS and ECMWF runs. \n\nThe hurricane is now moving a little east of due north, estimated at \n5 degrees at 6 kt. Not much has changed with the track reasoning, \nwith Odalys continuing to move north-northeast while a deep-layer \ntrough has the strongest influence on its motion as it remains \nvertically coherent. When the cyclone decouples vertically, this \nmotion should abruptly shift to the south-southeast in 24-48 h as \nthe now shallow cyclone will be mainly steered by a low-level ridge \nlocated to its northwest. The latest NHC track forecast is very \nclose to the prior one, continuing to favor a blend of the latest \nHFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind \nensemble mean (GDMI) guidance. \n\nDistant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be \ntransported into the southwestern United States late this weekend \nand early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy \nrainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued \nby the Weather Prediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/2100Z 20.5N 123.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 21.3N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 22.3N 123.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 22.4N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 21.8N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  29/0600Z 20.7N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/1800Z 19.5N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/1800Z 18.2N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}