{"msg": "620\nAXNT20 KNHC 261656\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1655 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.6N 44.0W at 26/1500\nUTC or 980 nm WSW of the Azores, moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are \noccurring across the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection \nis noted from 28N to 30N between 43W and 46.5W. Little change in\nstrength is forecast over the next several days.\nTropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 18.8N 23.0W at 26/1500 \nUTC or 130 nm N of Sal Cabo Verde, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed \nis 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft in the NE \nquadrant. Gonzalo is a sheared storm with numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection extending from 18N to 28N between 16.5W\nand 20.5W. On the forecast track, the center will continue to \nmove away from northeastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands \ntoday. Additional weakening is forecast, and Gonzalo is expected \nto become a remnant low in the next 12-24 hours. Swells generated \nby Gonzalo are expected to affect portions of the Cabo Verde \nIslands through today before diminishing Sunday. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay\nand Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nVery Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N68.5W \nthrough the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. \nDeepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. \nhas produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward \nFlorida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This \nswell is propagating into the area behind the cold front, \nproducing seas of 8 to 12 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of \n65W. Rough seas will follow the front through later this afternoon,\nbefore starting to subside through Sun morning.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 63W, south of 18N, moving west \nat near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low \ncenter across the NE Caribbean. No significant convection is\ndepicted at this time in association to this wave. \nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 81W, S of \n16N, extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. \nScattered moderate convection is depicted along the wave axis. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 14.5N22W to 08N41W. The ITCZ \nextends from 08N41W to 11.5N61W. Aside from convection associated\nwith Gonzalo, numerous convection is depicted from 09.52N to 15N\nbetween 49W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from \n04N to 14N between 22W and 40W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weakening stationary front extends from W Cuba to the south-central\nGulf to the Rio Grande river. Isolated showers can be found along\nthe weakening front. Scattered moderate convection is found over \nthe central Bay of Campeche along a surface trough. Moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas prevail basin- wide.\nFor the forecast, light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate \nseas, will prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas will \ngradually increase from the early to the middle part of next week.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic\nand Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades \nover most of the basin, with the exception of locally fresh east \nwinds offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 \nft in the south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 3 \nto 5 ft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the\nNE Caribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions \nacross much of central portions. The eastern end of the Eastern \nPacific monsoon trough is supporting a cluster of scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms offshore of central and western \nColombia. Scattered moderate convection is present across the \nwaters between Jamaica and Cuba.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate \nto fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, and gentle to \nmoderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the\nNW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical\nStorm Gonzalo, Tropical Depression Fay and on significant swell \npropagating southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the \nBahamas to 65W.\nA vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the\nU.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,\nand a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N68.5W\nto the north-central Bahamas to NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring \nahead of the front to 64.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are \noccurring N of 23N and ahead of the front to 62W, where seas are \n5 to 9 ft in N swell. Behind the front, moderate NW to N winds \nprevail. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east,\na surface trough supported by a mid-level low is inducing \nnumerous moderate convection from 24N to 30N between 54W and 62W.\nModerate lo locally fresh winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are present in\nthe vicinity of this trough. E of this area, high pressure across\nthe NE Atlantic drapes across Tropical Depression Fay. The weak \npressure gradient to the south continues to yield a belt of \nmoderate trades from 10N to 21N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, \nwhere seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E \nwinds prevail S of the monsoon trough to 24N between 19W and 30W,\nwhere seas are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise \nmainly gentle winds prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will \nreach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before starting to\nweaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected\nalong the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are expected \neast of the front this weekend before diminishing. Rough to very \nrough seas behind the front will gradually subside through the \nweekend.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213632933181259783", "issued": "2026-09-26T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213632933181259783"}