{"msg": "809\nAXPZ20 KNHC 261535\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.9N 111.7W at 26/1500 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 928 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with\ngusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 43 ft (13.5 m). Polo is a\npowerful Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane \nWind Scale. A clear 15 nm wide eye is observed. Numerous strong \nconvection is within 90 nm of the center. Polo will make a \ngradual turn toward the northwest late today and toward the north\non Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward and \napproach Baja California Sur. Slow weakening is expected to begin\ntonight, but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as \nit approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to \nproduce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of \n10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall \nmay produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially \nin areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast \nrainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather \nService Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\n \nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will\nspread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely\nto cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 19.8N 123.7W at 26/1500 UTC,\nmoving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.\nPeak seas are 33 ft (10 m). Odalys is now a Category 2 hurricane\non the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is \nforecast to continue through early next week. Numerous strong\nconvection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Odalys is \nexpected to maintain its current motion today, followed by a turn\ntoward the northeast on Sun. An eastward to southeastward motion\nis forecast early next week. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nGale Warning (Invest EP90): Low pressure south of the Gulf of\nTehuantepec continues to become better organized, and strong\nwinds are increasing. Gale force winds are forecast to develop in\nassociation with this low as early as Sun afternoon offshore\nOaxaca and Curer. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a \nday or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern\nMexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the \nnext 48 hours. The broader circulation, deep moisture, and \ninstability associated with this system is already producing \nheavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Southern \nMexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Sat night across \nportions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well as \nChiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 09N90W to Invest \nEP90 and to 14N99W. It resumes south of Odalys at 14N122W to \n11N127W to 10N130W and to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is from 04N to 08N between 84W-87W, from 05N \nto 09N between 127W-134W, and from 01N to 09N west of 135W. \nScattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 92W-96W,\nand within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 122W-127W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest 90E, which has\nnow prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. \nFresh northeast gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. \nSeas there are 5 to 7 ft. Overnight satellite scatterometer data\npasses indicate gentle to moderate northwest to north winds \noffshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds \nelsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters away from Hurricane \nPolo. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Large \nseas in long- period southeast to south swell out ahead of Polo \nare impacting the offshore waters of Baja California south of \nabout Punta Eugenia and at the entrance of the Gulf of \nCalifornia. Seas produced by the swell are in the range of about \n8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in west to northwest are over the \noffshore waters of the states of Michoacan and Guerrero and seas\nof 5 to 7 ft in west to northwest swell are over the waters of \nthose states. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are in the central section of the\nGulf of California, 3 ft or less in the northern section and 4 \nto 6 ft in the southern section of the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W\nthis afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to \nnear 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun \nafternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N \n113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. \nPolo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over \nNW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo \nwill impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California \noffshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys \nwill move to near 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N \n123.5W late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N \n123.1W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 \nkt, move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post-\ntropical and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken\nto a remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue \nnight. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, \nlocated south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming \nbetter organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a \nday or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern\nMexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to occasionally fresh east to southeast winds are\noffshore Guatemala and El Salvador as low pressure organizes\nsouth of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds\ndominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas \nare present in and near the Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the \narea, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and\nlocally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through \nthe weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters well into next week along \nwith mostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. \nOutside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward \nover the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it\nand Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters \nwest of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W.\nSeas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per overnight satellite \naltimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are \nelsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough \nseas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 18.3N \n112.1W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves\nto near 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun \nafternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N \n113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. \nPolo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over \nNW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo \nwill impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California \noffshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys \nwill move to near move to 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near \n21.0N 123.5W late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near \n21.8N 123.1W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt \ngusts 75 kt, move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become \npost- tropical and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then \nweaken to a remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and \nchange little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late \nTue night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, \nlocated south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming \nbetter organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a \nday or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern\nMexico. \nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form \nover the next day or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast \nof the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression could form early next week. The system is forecast to \nmove generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of \nthe Hawaiian Islands. Fresh to near gale southwest winds will\ndevelop south of the monsoon trough over the far western part of\nthe area starting this afternoon in response to the developing \narea of low pressure, Seas are expected to build to around 8 to \n11 ft with these winds.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213617137484693511", "issued": "2026-09-26T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213617137484693511"}