{"id": "1213609554008932359", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T15:00:00Z", "msg": "829\nWTPA42 PHFO 261457\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  24\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026\n\nThe radar and satellite presentation of Nolo has not improved since\nthe previous advisory. The eyewall has opened up at times on the\nnorth side, and a pronounced dry slot is wrapping around the eastern\nside of the circulation. Previous aircraft data indicated the\ncentral pressure was holding steady around 975 mb. For now, the\ninitial intensity is held at a likely generous 90 kt, in best\nagreement with recent UW-CIMSS D-PRINT and SATCON estimates. An Air\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently entered Nolo\nand will provide some updated, in situ information about the\nstructure and intensity of the hurricane shortly.\n \nNolo continues to meander to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii.\nWater vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge building to the north of\nthe Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Nolo to begin moving\nwestward later this morning and accelerate westward through the\nweekend. Early next week, a mid-level trough currently to the\nnorthwest of Hawaii will dig southward and steer Nolo toward the\nnorthwest and north-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Then, a\nwestward turn is anticipated on Wednesday as a mid-level ridge\nbuilds to the north of Nolo. The track models are in good agreement\non keeping the core of Nolo well to the south and southwest of the\nmain Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. No major changes\nwere made to the NHC forecast, which remains close to the simple\nconsensus (TVCN) that has verified well for this event so far.\n \nThe hurricane is showing some ill effects of easterly shear and dry\nair, and its lack of forward motion could be resulting in some\nupwelling of cooler water. But as Nolo starts moving westward, the\nvertical wind shear is forecast to weaken, and the SSTs are slightly\nwarmer along the track. So, strengthening is still anticipated\nduring the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast calls for Nolo\nto become a major hurricane in 24 h. The near-term intensity\nforecast still lies on the high end of the guidance, favoring the\nHAFS-A, Google DeepMind, and HCCA solutions. After 48 h, increasing\nsouthwesterly shear associated with the trough should induce a\nweakening trend. This update shows a faster rate of weakening from\n60-96 h, following the latest multi-model consensus trends.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii\ntoday before turning westward and moving away from the island.\nTropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island,\nespecially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are\npossible in those areas today.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big\nIsland and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant,\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in\nareas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of\nthe Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser\nrainfall totals are expected.\n \n3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big\nIsland's coastline this weekend.\n \n4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where\ngusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas\nof steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and\ngusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the\nweekend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/1500Z 16.9N 155.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.9N 156.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 16.8N 157.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 16.8N 159.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  29/0000Z 19.3N 163.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 21.0N 163.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.3N 165.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  01/1200Z 23.5N 168.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}