{"id": "1213608374194569223", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T15:00:00Z", "msg": "775\nWTPZ42 KNHC 261451\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n800 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nInfrared satellite imagery shows that the eye of Polo has become \ncloud filled since the previous advisory.  This appears to be a \nresult of an increase in shear over the system.  The subjective \nDvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was unchanged from earlier, \nhowever objective estimates have decreased and range from about \n125-142 kt.  Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory has \nbeen reduced to 135 kt, which could be slightly generous.\n\nSome fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, however \nwith the gradually increasing shear, slow weakening seems to be the \nmore likely scenario during the next 24 to 48 hours.  After that \ntime, a more significant increase in southwesterly shear is expected \nwhich is likely to cause an additional decrease in wind speed as \nPolo approaches the Baja Peninsula.  The latest NHC intensity \nforecast is a blend of the typically reliable HFIP corrected \nconsensus and Google Deep Mind aids.  Regardless of the exact \nintensity forecast, Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane when \nit reaches Baja California Sur.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at \n9 kt.  There is once again no significant change to the track \nforecast reasoning.  Polo is expected to turn northwestward later \ntoday, and then northward on Sunday as it moves around the western \nperiphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. By Monday, a mid-level \ntrough approaching the west coast of the United States should cause \nPolo to turn northeastward.  This motion is expected to take the \ncyclone over the Baja Peninsula and into northwestern Mexico late \nMonday through Tuesday.  While the track guidance is in generally \ngood agreement on the overall scenario, there are some large \ndifference in the forward speed of Polo after the northeastward \nturn, which results in a large spread as to when the storm reaches \nthe Baja Peninsula. The NHC forecast is along the faster side of the \nguidance with the typically better performing HFIP corrected \nconsensus aid and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. \n  \nDistant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported\ninto the southwestern United States this weekend and early next\nweek, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash\nflood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane\nWatch is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions\ncould reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early \nMonday, making further preparations difficult. A storm surge will \nbe possible, especially in areas of onshore winds.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja \nCalifornia Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of\nthe northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next\nseveral days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/1500Z 17.9N 111.7W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 18.9N 112.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 20.5N 113.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 22.2N 114.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 23.9N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 60H  29/0000Z 25.6N 112.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 30.8N 106.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}