{"id": "1213607384291835911", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T15:00:00Z", "msg": "736\nWTPZ41 KNHC 261446\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026\n\nThe structure of Odalys this morning appears to be quickly going \ndownhill. The small eye that had been associated with the hurricane \nis no longer seen on geostationary satellite imagery. An earlier \nAMSR3 microwave pass also showed the inner core has degraded as \nsoutherly vertical wind shear quickly increases, now diagnosed at 32 \nkt by UW-CIMSS. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity \nestimates are decreasing, and the initial intensity has been lowered \nto 90 kt for this advisory. \n\nWith the abrupt increase in shear, Odalys is likely to continue \nrapidly weakening in the short-term. Most of the model guidance \nshows the vertical structure decoupling in the next 24-36 h as shear \nimports nearby dry air is into the circulation's core. The NHC \nintensity forecast was lowered quite a bit form the previous one, \npartially due to the lower initial intensity, but also with the \nexpectation the small tropical cyclone will quickly succumb to the \nunfavorable environment. The latest forecast now shows Odalys \nbecoming a remnant low in 48 h and dissipating by the mid portion of \nnext week. \n\nThe hurricane continues to move northward, with an estimated motion \nat 360 degree at 6 kt. A deep-layer trough to its northwest should \nmaintain this general steering for the next 12-24 h, though as the \nthe system decouples and becomes vertically shallow it should turn \nsharply back to the southeast or even south as it becomes more \ninfluenced by broad low-level ridging to its northwest. The latest \nNHC track is shifted slightly north in the short-term, but was also \nshifted westward after Odalys become a remnant low, following the \nlatest trends in the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and \nGoogle DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) guidance.\n \nDistant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported\ninto the southwestern United States this weekend and early next\nweek, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash\nflood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/1500Z 19.8N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 20.7N 123.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 21.9N 123.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 22.6N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  29/0000Z 21.7N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/1200Z 19.0N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}