{"id": "1213606414710669319", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T15:00:00Z", "msg": "462\nWTNT42 KNHC 261441\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026\n200 PM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nGonzalo remains a highly sheared tropical storm. Even though the \nlow-level circulation on GOES-19 visible images appears to be \nsomewhat less elongated than overnight, convection continues to be \nquite displaced to the northeast due to a brutal 45 kt of \nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear. A Metop-C ASCAT pass showed a \npeak wind of 31 kt to the north of the circulation this morning, but \nmissed the center and the deeper convection to the northeast where \nthe highest winds were previously observed. The initial intensity is \nthus only lowered to 35 kt this advisory, assuming some stronger \nwinds still exist in the convection to the northeast.\n\nThe low-level circulation is moving generally north-northwestward \nat 345 degrees at 9 kt. This general motion should continue today, \nfollowed by a slow down and turn to the west-northwest as the \nincreasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by a narrow \nlow-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast has been \nshifted slightly further north, following the latest trends in the \nHFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind \nensemble mean (GDMI) aids. Intensity-wise, Gonzalo likely does not \nhave much time left as a tropical cyclone, with convection becoming \nincreasingly displaced from the center as shear over the system \nremains above 40 kt. Like the previous forecast, weakening is \nanticipated, and Gonzalo is forecast to become a remnant low in the \nnext 12 h as the convection is completely stripped away. Total \ndissipation is likely to occur early next week as the remnant low \ndrifts over the subtropical Eastern Atlantic basin.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/1500Z 18.8N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 19.8N  23.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  27/1200Z 20.6N  23.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  28/0000Z 21.2N  23.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/1200Z 21.5N  24.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  29/0000Z 21.7N  24.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/1200Z 21.8N  25.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}