{"id": "1213605909460123655", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T15:00:00Z", "msg": "426\nWTNT41 KNHC 261438\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nFay has not changed significantly since the previous update. The \ntropical cyclone is clearly still being impacted by both wind shear \nand dry air. The most recent TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate was \nT2.0/30 kt, and the objective intensity estimate is in the range of \n31-41 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt \nfor this advisory.  \n\nThe cyclone continues to drift towards the west-southwest, at  250/4 \nkt. A more southerly turn is expected as Fay continues move into the \nsouthern flank of the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, \nmost of the guidance has the depression turning westward due to the \nlarge-scale easterly flow. However there is a bit of uncertainty in \nthe precise timing of this turn. The current NHC forecast track is \nsimilar to the previous one with some minor adjustments based on the \nHCCA forecast aid. \n\nThere is a high level of uncertainty in the intensity forecast as \nFay remains over an area of favorably warm sea-surface temperatures, \nbut vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air will likely continue \nto hinder the system, preventing a more organized structure from \ndeveloping. Convection is likely to continue pulsing but the current \nNHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one showing \nlittle change in strength with only minor adjustments made. This \nforecast continues to maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it \nbecomes post-tropical and dissipates by the middle of next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/1500Z 29.6N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 29.5N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 28.8N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 27.9N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 26.8N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  29/0000Z 25.4N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 24.2N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.0N  50.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}