{"msg": "090\nAXNT20 KNHC 261051\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1050 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nFormer Tropical Storm Fay has weakened to Tropical Depression Fay,\nwhich is centered near 29.7N 43.7W at 26/0900 UTC or 970 nm WSW \nof the Azores, moving WSW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with \ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring across the N \nsemicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 28N to \n30N between 42W and 45W. Little change in strength is forecast\nover the next several days.\nTropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 17.6N 23.0W at 26/0900\nUTC or 50 nm N of Sal Cabo Verde, moving N at 8 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 17 ft \nin the NE quadrant. Gonzalo is a sheared storm with numerous\nmoderate isolated strong convection extending from 17N to 28N \nbetween 17W and 22W. On the forecast track, the center will \ncontinue to move away from northeastern portions of the Cabo Verde\nIslands today. Weakening is anticipated, and Gonzalo could become\na remnant low or dissipate within the next 24 hours. Swells \ngenerated by Gonzalo are expected to affect portions of the Cabo \nVerde Islands through today before diminishing Sunday. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay\nand Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nVery Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N68W \nthrough the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. \nDeepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. \nhas produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward \nFlorida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This \nswell is propagating into the area behind the cold front, \nproducing seas of 8 to 12 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of \n70W. Rough seas will follow the front through later this morning,\nbefore starting to subside through Sun morning.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep-\nlayer trough extending from the Yucatan Channel southwestward\nacross southern Mexico, combined with abundant low-level \nmoisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the \nCentral America from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and portions of \nChiapas and Campeche, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in this region will\ncreate the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and \nlandslides through Sat, before the upper level system responsible \nfor the rainfall shifts into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to \nlocal weather services as well as the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center at \nhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 62W, from 06N to 18N, moving \nwest near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low \ncenter across the NE Caribbean. Scattered showers are behind the\nwave axis in the SE Caribbean.\nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 80W, S of \n16N, extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. \nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the \nwave over the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshores.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 16N24W to 10N30W to 10N52W. The \nITCZ extends from 08N39W to 11.5N55W to 10.5N60W. Aside from \nconvection associated with Gonzalo and the tropical waves, \nscattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N \nto 15N between 48W and 59W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak cold front extends from W Cuba to the central Gulf near \n23N90W then becomes stationary and continues NW to the central \nTexas coast in the area of Victoria. Widely scattered clusters of \nmoderate convection are found over the SW Gulf. Moderate or weaker\nwinds and slight to moderate seas are basin-wide.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will dissipate by tonight. \nGentle to moderate winds will prevail through tonight then \ndiminish slightly Sun into early next week. \n \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico\nexpected today.\nA weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic\nand Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades \nover most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds \noffshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in \nthe south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4 \nft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the NE\nCaribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions across\nmuch of central portions. Scattered moderate convection across\nacross most of the Gulf of Honduras to 19N. and across the waters\nbetween Jamaica and eastern Cuba.\nFor the forecast, the continued weak pressure gradient across the\nregion will support moderate to fresh trades over the south-\ncentral Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight \nto moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas \nelsewhere.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical\nStorm Gonzalo, Tropical Depression Fay and on significant swell \npropagating southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the \nBahamas to 68W.\nA vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the\nU.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,\nand a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N68W \nto the north-central Bahamas to NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring \nahead of the front to 63W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are \noccurring N of 22N and ahead of the front to 62W, where seas are \n5 to 9 ft in N swell. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh\nN to N-NE winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mostly N to NE \nswell. To the east, as surface trough supported by a mid-level \nlow is inducing numerous moderate convection from 23N to 28N \nbetween 54W and 60W. E of this area, high pressure across the NE \nAtlantic drapes across Tropical Depression Fay. The weak pressure\ngradient to the south continues to yield a belt of moderate \ntrades from 10N to 20N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas\nare 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail\nN of the monsoon trough to 24N between 25W and 40W, where seas \nare 5 to 8 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle \nwinds prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will \nreach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before starting \nto weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are \nexpected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and \nrough to very rough seas will follow the front through this morning,\nbefore starting to decrease.  \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213561242499678215", "issued": "2026-09-26T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213561242499678215"}