{"msg": "372\nAXPZ20 KNHC 261017\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0945 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.6N 111.0W, or about 340\nnm west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico at 26/0900 UTC, \nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 917 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to \n175 kt. Peak seas are 46 ft (14 m). Polo continues to look very \nimpressive in satellite imagery as it remains a powerful category\n5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A clear \n15 nm wide eye is observed. The imagery reveals that Polo has \nnumerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE \nquadrant, 75 nm in the SE and 120 nm of the center in the W \nsemicircle. Polo will make a gradual turn toward the northwest \nlate today and toward the north on Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast \nto turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur. Slow \nweakening is expected to begin tonight, but Polo is expected to \nremain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur \non Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 \ninches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja \nCalifornia Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For\na complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, \nplease see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall \nGraphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\n \nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will\nspread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely\nto cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 19.1N 123.7W, or about 800 nm \nwest-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 26/0900\nUTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120\nkt. Peak seas are 37 ft (11 m). Odalys is a category 3 hurricane\non the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is \nforecast to continue through early next week. A small eye has\nbecome obscured by clouds. Satellite imagery shows numerous\nstrong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,\nwithin 60 nm in the S semicircle and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. \nOdalys is expected to maintain its current motion today, followed\nby a turn toward the northeast on Sun. An eastward to \nsoutheastward motion is forecast early next week. Weakening is \nforecast continue through early next week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nLow pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low \npressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nis gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions\nare conducive for development, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form in a day or two, while the system moves slowly \nwest-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of \nsouthern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of \ntropical formation within the next 48 hours. The broader \ncirculation, deep moisture, and instability associated with this \nsystem is already producing heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America and Southern Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts \nthrough Sat night across portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and \nGuatemala, as well as Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise \nconcerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. \nPlease refer to local weather services as well as the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to \nacross the southwestern Caribbean Sea, to across northern \nPanama, to 08N83W to 09N90W to Invest EP90 and to 14N99W. It \nresumes south of Odalys at 14N122W to 11N127W to 10N130W and \nto 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nfrom 04N to 08N between 84W-87W, from 05N to 09N between \n127W-134W, and from 01N to 09N west of 135W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 92W-96W,\nand within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 122W-127W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricanes Polo and on Hurricane Odalys as well as\ndeveloping low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is\nbringing very heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. \nFresh northeast gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. \nSeas there are 5 to 7 ft.\nOvernight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate gentle to\nmoderate northwest to north winds offshore the Baja California \nPeninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican \noffshore waters away from Hurricane Polo. Light to gentle winds \nare in the Gulf of California. Large seas in long- period \nsoutheast to south swell out ahead of Polo are impacting the \noffshore waters of Baja California south of about Punta Eugenia \nand at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas produced by \nthe swell are in the range of about 8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft\nin west to northwest are over the offshore waters of the states \nof Michoacna and Guerrero and seas of 5 to 7 ft in west to \nnorthwest swell are over the waters of those states. Seas of 2 to\n4 ft are in the central section of the Gulf of California, 3 ft \nor less in the northern section and 4 to 6 ft in the southern \nsection of the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W\nthis afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to \nnear 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun \nafternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N \n113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. \nPolo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over \nNW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo \nwill impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California \noffshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys \nis near 19.1N 123.7W, or about 800 nm west- southwest of the \nsouthern tip of Baja California at 26/0900 UTC, moving north at 4\nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Odalys will \nmove to near 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N 123.5W \nlate tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.1W \nSun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, \nmove to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post-tropical \nand move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken to a \nremnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change little in\nintensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue night. \nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, located \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better \norganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a \nday or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern\nMexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to occasionally fresh east to southeast winds are\noffshore Guatemala and El Salvador as low pressure organizes\nsouth of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds\ndominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas \nare present in and near the Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the \narea, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and\nlocally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through \nthe weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters well into next week along \nwith mostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. \nOutside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward \nover the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it\nand Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters \nwest of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W.\nSeas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per overnight satellite \naltimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are \nelsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough \nseas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.6N 111.0W, or \nabout 340 nm west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico at 2 AM\nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained \nwind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum \ncentral pressure is 917 mb. Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W \nthis afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to \nnear 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun \nafternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N \n113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. \nPolo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over \nNW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo \nwill impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California \noffshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys \nis near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 800 nm west-southwest of the \nsouthern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, moving north at 4 \nkt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt,\nand the minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Odalys will move to \nnear move to 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N 123.5W \nlate tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.1W \nSun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, \nmove to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post- tropical \nand move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken to a \nremnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change little in\nintensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue night. \nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, located \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better \norganized. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a \nday or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern\nMexico. \nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form \nover the next day or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast \nof the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression could form early next week. The system is forecast to \nmove generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of \nthe Hawaiian Islands. Fresh to near gale southwest winds will\ndevelop south of the monsoon trough over the far western part of\nthe area starting this afternoon in response to the developing \narea of low pressure, Seas are expected to build to around 8 to \n11 ft with these winds.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213554446771879943", "issued": "2026-09-26T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213554446771879943"}