{"id": "1213537582103199751", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T09:00:00Z", "msg": "798\nWTPA42 PHFO 260851\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  23\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nNolo's satellite and radar presentations have improved slightly \nduring the past few hours, with less erosion of the convection \nnoted on the eastern side of the circulation. However, an Air Force \nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the storm \nhas only measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind of 85 kt, and \ndropsonde data suggest the central pressure continues to oscillate \naround 985 mb. The current intensity is maintained at 90 kt while \nthe plane continues its mission sampling the wind field.\n\nRadar and aircraft fixes indicate that Nolo's center has been \nnearly stationary, or meandering, for the past 6 hours or so. \nMid-level high pressure is building north of the Hawaiian Islands, \nwhich is expected to force Nolo to begin moving slowly westward \nSaturday morning, and then gradually increase in speed over the \nnext couple of days. The mid-level trough that had been steering \nNolo northward is forecast to re-amplify west of the main Hawaiian \nIslands by the end of the weekend, which should cause Nolo to turn \nnorthwestward and north-northwestward by Monday and Tuesday. Nolo's \ninteraction with the mid-level trough/low could then cause the \nstorm to turn westward again by day 5. For the most part, the NHC \nofficial forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, except a \nlittle bit faster and to the west on day 5, and it lies close to \nthe HCCA consensus aid.\n\nThe shear that has been affecting Nolo is expected to diminish and \nreach a minimum in about 36 to 48 hours. As a result, strengthening \nis still forecast, with Nolo likely becoming a major hurricane on \nSaturday and reaching a peak intensity by late Sunday. The NHC \nforecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance \nenvelope. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase substantially in \nabout 3 days when Nolo begins to interact with the trough, and that \nshould cause the hurricane to weaken and potentially become a \ntropical storm by day 5.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii\nthrough Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the\nisland. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are \npossible in those areas on Saturday. Residents should follow\nadvice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do\nso.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big \nIsland and eastern Maui tonight, then continue through the weekend. \nSignificant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern \nportions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, \nlesser rainfall totals are expected.  \n \n3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big \nIsland's coastline into the weekend.\n \n4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where\ngusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas \nof steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and \ngusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the\nweekend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0900Z 16.9N 155.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 17.0N 155.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 16.8N 156.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 16.8N 158.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 17.2N 160.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 60H  28/1800Z 18.4N 162.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 20.1N 163.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 22.9N 165.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  01/0600Z 23.3N 167.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}