{"id": "1213537096726216711", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T09:00:00Z", "msg": "757\nWTNT42 KNHC 260848\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026\n800 AM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nThe convective structure of Gonzalo has not changed much during the \nlast 6 hours.  It continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, with \nthe somewhat ill-defined low-level center exposed to the southwest \nof the convective mass due to 30 kt of southwesterly shear \noccurring over the cyclone.  The TAFB current intensity number is \n2.5/35 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from \n34-41 kt. Based on these estimates as well as earlier scatterometer \ndata, the intensity is held at 40 kt, but this could be a bit \ngenerous.\n\nThe initial motion is northward, or 350 degrees at 8 kt.  This \ngeneral motion should continue for another day, followed by a \ndeceleration and a turn toward the west-northwest by Monday.  The \nstorm is already experiencing 30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind \nshear, and the shear is expected to increase to over 40 kt by hour \n12 of the forecast, so I expect the convection to continue moving \nfarther away from the low-level center.  This should lead to Gonzalo \nbecoming post-tropical by hour 24 or a bit sooner.  Model guidance \nis in good agreement that Gonzalo will weaken significantly over the \nnext 36 hours, and the NHC forecast follows the guidance.  Earlier \nASCAT data indicated the low-level circulation was becoming \nelongated.  If this trend continues, then Gonzalo could dissipate \nsooner than forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0900Z 17.6N  23.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 18.9N  23.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 20.1N  23.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  27/1800Z 20.7N  23.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0600Z 21.1N  24.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/1800Z 21.3N  24.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/0600Z 21.5N  25.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0600Z 21.9N  26.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}