{"id": "1213535622204325895", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T09:00:00Z", "msg": "476\nWTNT41 KNHC 260841\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nAs anticipated, Fay's convection is redeveloping early this morning,\neven as the storm's overall organization degrades. The latest\nsubjective Dvorak intensity analysis from TAFB rated Fay at 2.0/30\nkt, while objective analysis from UW-CIMSS rated the intensity\nbetween 31 and 38 kt. With the latest scatterometry pass from around\n0000 UTC yielding a maximum wind speed of about 24 kt, and\nconvection still weaker than 24 hours prior, the initial intensity\nwas set at 30 kt, and Fay has been downgraded to a tropical\ndepression.\n \nStorm motion remains slow, at 250/3 kt. Fay is beginning to turn to\nthe south-southwest as it enters the southern flank of the\nsubtropical Atlantic high. Track guidance then generally depicts Fay\nbeing picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next week.\nConfidence in the track forecast has increased over the last several\ncycles as models begin to better converge on a solution, but still\nexhibit a fair amount of disparity in depicting when Fay will turn\nto the west. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted slightly to\nthe left, reflecting a blend of the previous forecast and HCCA, and\noverall suggests a sooner turn to the southwest and then west\ncompared to the previous advisory.\n \nConfidence in Fay's intensity forecast remains low. While the\nsystem remains over favorable SSTs, vertical wind shear and dry\nmid-level air suggest an overall hostile environment. Still, Fay's\nconvection has re-initiated multiple times over the last several\ndays, just when it appears that the storm is on its last legs. Warm\nSSTs may favor this continued, pulsating nature of Fay's\nconvection, but the current forecast thinking is that the vertical\nwind shear currently degrading Fay will make these convective\nbursts increasingly difficult to sustain. The latest NHC intensity\nforecast keeps Fay below tropical storm strength, however yet\nanother restrengthening cycle cannot be ruled out. Skilled guidance\nseems to favor an overall upward trend in intensity just beyond 24\nh, but with Fay currently lacking organization, the latest\nintensity forecast keeps the system at relatively steady strength,\nbefore dissipation is expected by the middle of next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0900Z 29.7N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 29.7N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 29.2N  44.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 28.4N  44.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 27.3N  44.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  28/1800Z 26.2N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 24.6N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 23.2N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}