{"id": "1213535320735154183", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T09:00:00Z", "msg": "429\nWTPZ41 KNHC 260839\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026\n\nOdalys continues to show signs of weakening. Satellite imagery shows \nthe hurricane's eye has been obscured by a central dense overcast \n(CDO), though microwave imagery still indicates a well-defined \nlow-level circulation center. A recent 0515 UTC Metop-C \nscatterometer pass revealed an asymmetric wind field. The latest \nsubjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was 5.5/102 kt, but the \nfinal-T number was 5.0/90 kt. This generally aligns with most \nUW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates, which range from \n98 to 106 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity \nis lowered to 100 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 355/4 kt, as the \nsystem continues to be steered by the flow between a mid- to \nupper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge over northern \nMexico. The hurricane is forecast to continue on this trajectory \nover the next day or so as the aforementioned trough amplifies over \nthe eastern Pacific. By early next week, Odalys is anticipated to \nabruptly turn to the east and southeast as the increasingly shallow \ncirculation becomes steered by the low-level flow. The updated track \nforecast closely aligns with the reliable HCCA consensus aid, \nnudging slightly westward prior to the sharp easterly turn, and \nremains virtually unchanged from the previous advisory thereafter.\n \nThe latest SHIPS guidance depicts Odalys slowly moving into a more \nunfavorable environment, characterized by moderate to strong \nvertical wind shear, mid-level dry air, and cooler sea surface \ntemperatures. These conditions will likely inhibit deep convection, \nmaking it difficult for Odalys to remain organized later this \nweekend. Consequently, the latest NHC forecast shows Odalys \ndegenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 60 h, a trend supported \nby simulated satellite imagery from both the GFS and ECMWF.\n \nDistant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported\ninto the southwestern United States this weekend and early next\nweek, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash\nflood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0900Z 19.1N 123.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 19.9N 123.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 21.8N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 22.1N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  28/1800Z 21.6N 122.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  29/0600Z 20.7N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0600Z 18.5N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z 16.4N 118.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}