{"msg": "280\nAXNT20 KNHC 260500\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.9N 43.4W at 26/0300 UTC or\nabout 1755 KM or 950 NM W-SW of the Azores, moving W-SW at 6 kt. \nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained \nwind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are \noccurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted from 29N to 30.5N between 42W and \n43.5W. A gradual turn toward the S-SW is expected over the next \nfew days. Fay is expected to maintain it current strength \novernight then a slow weakening trend will begin through the \nweekend, before the surface circulation opens up into a trough by \nTue.\nTropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 16.9N 22.5W at 26/0300 \nUTC or about 50 KM or 30 nm E-NE of Sal, Cabo Verde, moving N at \n8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are \nnear 19 ft within 210 nm NE of center. Numerous strong convection \nis noted from 17N to 21N between 17W and 22W. A general northward  \nmotion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a \nslower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the \ncenter will past across the northeastern portions of the Cabo \nVerde Islands tonight and move north of the islands on Sat. \nGradual weakening is expected tonight through Sat as southerly\nvertical wind shear continues to impact the storm through the \nweekend. Gonzalo is expected to lose convection and become post\ntropical by Sat night. Swells generated by the storm are expected\nto affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells \nare likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening \nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay\nand Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nVery Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N71W \nthrough the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. \nDeepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. \nhas produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward \nFlorida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This \nswell is propagating into the area behind the cold front, \nproducing seas of 8 to 13 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of \n70W. The highest seas of 12 to 13 ft are occurring in the \nGulfstream offshore of northern Florida, N of 29N. Buoy 41010 at \n28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 10 ft seas as\nof 0300 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas \nwill follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to \nsubside through Sun morning.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep-\nlayer trough extending from the Yucatan Channel southwestward\nacross southern Mexico, combined with abundant low- level \nmoisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the \nCentral America from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and portions of \nChiapas and Campeche, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in this region \nwill create the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and\nlandslides through Sat, before the upper level system responsible\nfor the rainfall shifts into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to\nlocal weather services as well as the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center at \nhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 60W, from 06N to 17N, moving \nwest near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low\ncenter across the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 10.5N to 19.5N between 58W and 65W. \nA western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 79W, S of 15N,\nextending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave, S of \n13.5N W of 81.5W and inland across Central America.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from just S-SW of Gonzalo near 15N23W \nto 11N27W to 08.5N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 11.5N55W to\n10.5N60W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo and the \ntropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 08N to 13N between 20W and 29W, from 05N to 07.5N\nbetween 32W and 44W. and from 10N to 13N between 47.5W and 56W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak cold front has continued to move southward across the\neastern Gulf and Florida, and now extends from the NW coast of \nCuba near La Habana to 24N90W, then becomes stationary and \ncontinues NW to the central Texas coast in the area of Victoria.\nWidely scattered clusters of moderate convection are found within\n120 nm S of the front between western Cuba and 96W. Moderate N-NE\nto E-NE winds are N of this boundary E of 90W, while moderate E \nwinds are also within 75 nm N of the front between 90W and 96W. \nGentle E to NE winds are occurring to the south of the front. Seas\nN of the front are generally 3 to 5 ft, and 2 to 3 ft to the south.\nFor the forecast, the weak cold front will begin to stall across\neastern portions of the Gulf tonight and then dissipate into Sat.\nModerate to locally NE to E fresh winds will follow the front \ntonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through\nSat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week\nas weak high pressure settle across the NE Gulf.\n \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico\nexpected tonight into Sat.\nA weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic\nand Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades \nover most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds \noffshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in \nthe south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4 \nft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the NE\nCaribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions across\nmuch of central portions. Scattered moderate convection across\nacross most of the Gulf of Honduras to 19N. and across the waters\nbetween Jamaica and eastern Cuba.\nFor the forecast, the continued weak pressure gradient across the\nregion will support moderate to fresh trades over the south- \ncentral Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight \nto moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas \nelsewhere. Active showers and thunderstorms over NW portions\ntonight will gradually shift eastward to the central Caribbean\nthrough Mon.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical\nStorms Fay and Gonzalo, and on significant swell propagating\nsouthward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to \n68W.\nA vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the\nU.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast,\nand a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N71W to\nthe north-central Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to\nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring\nSE of the front to the Greater Antilles W of 70W and E of the\nfront to 66.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 26N\nand ahead of the front to 64W, where seas are 5 to 9 ft in N\nswell. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh N to N-NE winds\nprevail with recent satellite scatterometer data showing strongest\nwinds along most of the Florida coastal waters. Seas are 8 to 13\nft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east, as surface trough that \nextends from 28N58W to 23N61W is supported by a mid level low and\nis inducing numerous moderate convection from 23N to 28N between \n54W and 60W. E of this area, high pressure across the NE Atlantic\ndrapes across Tropical Storm Fay. The weak pressure gradient to \nthe south continues to yield a belt of moderate trades from 10N to\n20N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. \nFarther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the \nmonsoon trough to 24N between 25W and 40W, where seas are 5 to 89 \nft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds \nprevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will \ndrift SE and reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Sat night \nbefore starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated \nthunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to \nstrong winds and rough to very rough seas in large N to NE swell will\nfollow the front through Sat morning, before subsiding through Sun\nmorning.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213492288801046535", "issued": "2026-09-26T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213492288801046535"}