{"msg": "001\nAXPZ20 KNHC 260405\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0345 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 17.4N 110.1W, or about 310 nm\nsouthwest of Cabo Corrientes Mexico at 26/0300 UTC, moving west-\nnorthwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt.\nPeak seas are 46 ft (14 m). Polo looks very impressive in \nsatellite imagery as it remains a powerful category 5 hurricane \non the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A clear 15 nm wide \neye is observed. The imagery reveals that Polo has numerous \nstrong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, \n150 nm of the center in the SE and NW quadrants and 120 nm of the\ncenter in the SW quadrant. Polo will maintain its current motion\ntonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Sat \nand north on Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward \nand approach Baja California Sur. Fluctuations in intensity are \npossible tonight and Sat. Slow weakening is expected after that, \nbut Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it \napproaches Baja California Sur early next week. Polo is expected \nto produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts \nof 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of\nforecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National \nWeather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\n \nSwells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will\nspread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely\nto cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 810 nm\nwest-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at \n26/0300 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with \ngusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are 38 ft (11.5 m). Odalys remains a\npowerful major hurricane, though satellite imagery is beginning \nto show signs of weakening. Its eye remains rather ragged. The \nimagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm of the\ncenter in the NE quadrant, 75 nm of the center in the SE\nquadrant, 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of\nthe center in the NW quadrant. Odalys is expected to maintain \nits current motion through Sat, followed by a turn toward the \nnortheast on Sunday. An eastward to southeastward motion is \nforecast early next week. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the\nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is \nforecast to begin tonight and continue through early next week.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nLow pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low \npressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nis becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for\ngradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to \nform late this weekend or early next week while the system moves \nslowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast\nof southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of\ntropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical\nformation through the next 7 days. The broader circulation, deep\nmoisture, and instability associated with this system is already\nproducing heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and \nSouthern Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Sat night \nacross portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well \nas Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to \nacross the southwestern Caribbean Sea, to across northern Costa\nRica, to 10N85W to 11.5N91W to Invest EP90 and to 14N99W. It\nresumes to the SW of Odalys at 12N127W, to 11N132.5W and to\nbeyond 14N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection\nis from 02N to 10N between 129W-140W. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the \ntrough between 85W-90W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as low pressure \ndeveloping south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is bringing very\nheavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. Fresh northeast\ngap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas \nLatest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate gentle to\nmoderate northwest to north winds offshore the Baja California \nPeninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican\noffshore waters away from Hurricane Polo. Light to gentle winds\nare in the Gulf of California. Large seas in long-period\nsoutheast to south swell out ahead of Polo are impacting the \noffshore waters of Baja California south of about Punta Eugenia\nand at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas produced by \nthe swell are in the range of about 8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft \nin west to northwest are over the offshore waters of the states \nof Michoacna and Guerrero and seas of 5 to 7 ft in west to\nnorthwest swell are over the waters of those states. Seas of 2 to\n4 ft are in the central section of the Gulf of California, 3 ft \nor less in the northern section and 4 to 6 ft in the southern \nsection of the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.8N \n111.4W Sat morning, to near 19.0N 112.8W Sat evening, to near \n20.6N 113.6W Sun morning, to near 22.6N 113.8W Sun evening, to \nnear 24.6N 113.4W Mon morning and to near 26.3N 112.1W Mon \nevening. Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm while \nmoving inland over Sonora late Tue. Long-period swells generated \nby Polo will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja \nCalifornia offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, \nHurricane Odalys is near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 810 nm west- \nsouthwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and\nis moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with\ngusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. \nOdalys will move to near 9.6N 123.5W Sat morning, to near 20.8N \n123.4W Sat evening, to near 21.9N 123.1W Sun morning, weaken to a\ntropical storm near 22.4N 122.6W Sun evening, then become post- \ntropical and move to 22.3N 122.0W Mon morning, and weaken to a \nremnant low near 21.5N 121.3W Mon evening and reach near 19.3N \n119.8W late Tue. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming organized. \nEnvironmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, \nand a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend \nor early next week while the system moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern\nand southwestern Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate SE winds have developed offshore Guatemala, flowing\ntoward lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. \nOtherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas \nprevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of \nPanama. \nFor the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the \narea, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and\nlocally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through \nthe weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters through early next week, along\nwith mostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. \nOutside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward \nover the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it\nand Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters \nwest of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W.\nSeas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per latest satellite\naltimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are\nelsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough \nseas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.4N 110.1W, or\nabout 310 nm southwest of Cabo Corrientes Mexico at 8 PM PDT, \nand is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are\n150 kt with gusts to 185 kt, and the minimum central pressure is\n911 mb. Polo will move to near 17.8N 111.4W Sat morning, to near\n19.0N 112.8W Sat evening, to near 20.6N 113.6W Sun morning, to \nnear 22.6N 113.8W Sun evening, to near 24.6N 113.4W Mon morning \nand to near 26.3N 112.1W Mon evening. Polo is forecast to weaken \nto a tropical storm while moving inland over Sonora late Tue. \nLong-period swells generated by Polo will impact a good majority \nof the Mexican and Baja California offshore waters through the \nperiod. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys is near 18.8N 123.6W, or \nabout 810 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja \nCalifornia at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum \nsustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum \ncentral pressure is 952 mb. Odalys will move to near 9.6N 123.5W \nSat morning, to near 20.8N 123.4W Sat evening, to near 21.9N \n123.1W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 122.6W \nSun evening, then become post-tropical and move to 22.3N 122.0W \nMon morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 21.5N 121.3W Mon \nevening and reach near 19.3N 119.8W late Tue. Looking ahead, an \narea of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is \nbecoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to \nform late this weekend or early next week while the system moves \nslowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the \ncoast of southern and southwestern Mexico.\nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form \nabout 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the \nweekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression could form \nlate this weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to \nmove generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of \nthe Hawaiian Islands.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213481488206462983", "issued": "2026-09-26T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213481488206462983"}