{"id": "1213468470554984455", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T03:00:00Z", "msg": "547\nWTNT41 KNHC 260259\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nFay's structure is falling apart once again. Satellite imagery shows \nthat most of the deep convection has disappeared over the past \nseveral hours. Recent ASCAT data returned a maximum wind retrieval \nof just 24 kt, but given the low bias of the ASCAT due to its \nresolution, and the fact that all of the recent subjective and \nobjective satellite intensity estimates still support tropical storm \nintensity, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 35 \nkt.\n \nThe initial motion remains slow, at 260/3 kt. Steering winds are \nexpected to remain light as Fay sits within the Atlantic subtropical \nhigh, with a turn to the south-southwest expected within the next 24 \nh as the storm meanders into the southern flank of the high. Track \nforecast models are generally in good agreement for the first 48 h, \nbefore exhibiting larger spread thereafter as Fay moves away from \nthe influence of the subtropical high. Skilled models suggest that \nFay could be picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next \nweek, but the latest forecast calls for Fay to dissipate by then. \n \nFay has been difficult to forecast, as global models continue to \ndepict recurring cycles of diurnal convection, which have allowed \nFay to gain a second wind, so to speak, even as environmental \nconditions become increasingly hostile. This is likely due to SSTs \nremaining favorable for the storm, even as SHIPS guidance suggest \nthat mid-level moisture is lacking and vertical wind shear remains \nmoderate. Intensity guidance also depicts another re-strengthening \nof Fay just beyond 48 h, likely due to vertical wind shear \nrelenting. The current thinking behind the forecast, however, is \nthat with Fay weak enough as it is, the current environment will \ncontinue to degrade its structure and inhibit its ability to \nrestrengthen. As a result, the latest intensity forecast is \nrelatively conservative, holding Fay's strength somewhat steady as \nit undergoes these cycles of nocturnal convection, before the storm \nis expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday. \n\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0300Z 29.9N  43.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 30.0N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 29.9N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 29.2N  43.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 28.3N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/1200Z 27.2N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/0000Z 25.4N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}