{"id": "1213467795732824071", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T03:00:00Z", "msg": "361\nWTPZ42 KNHC 260256\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Polo Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026\n800 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nAnother NOAA research aircraft investigated Polo extensively this \nafternoon. The aircraft found that the minimum pressure of Polo has \ndecreased slightly since the last advisory, to 911 mb. The highest \nflight-level winds measured by the aircraft were 154 kt, which \ncorresponds to a 10-m wind near 140 kt. Higher instantaneous winds \nrepresenting gusts were measured by several dropsondes, while \nanother experimental instrument measured winds at near 80 m/s (155 \nkt) at a height of 25 m. Since the plane flew a non-standard pattern \non its research mission and the central pressure has actually \nslightly decreased, the intensity has been only very slightly \nlowered to 150 kt for this advisory. \n \nFluctuations in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle are \npossible tonight and tomorrow, but the exact timing of such events \ncan not be reliably forecast. Most guidance indicates that Polo will \nbegin to gradually weaken over the next couple of days as it moves \ninto a region of lower ocean heat content and encounters some \nmoderate vertical wind shear. Drier environmental mid-level air \ncould also contribute to weakening by the end of the weekend. \nHowever, it must be stressed that Polo will likely remain a \ndangerous major hurricane as it begins to approach the Baja \nCalifornia peninsula on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast remains \non the upper end of the intensity guidance and no changes of note \nwere made.\n\nPolo has continued westward for the past several hours. There is no \nchange to the track forecast reasoning with this advisory. The \nhurricane is still expected to turn gradually northwestward \ntomorrow, then northward by the end of the weekend while it moves \naround the western side of a ridge centered over northern Mexico. \nEarly next week an upper-level trough approaching from the \nnorthwest will cause the hurricane to turn northeastward toward \nBaja California Sur and west-central Mexico. Some of NHC's most \nreliable track guidance, including the GDM and HCCA continue to be \noutliers in showing a faster track, bringing Polo to the coast of \nBaja California Sur sooner than most other guidance. Out of respect \nfor this guidance, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted \nslightly faster and farther north again, but is generally very \nsimilar to the previous advisory.\n \nDistant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported\ninto the southwestern United States this weekend and early next\nweek, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash\nflood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja \nCalifornia peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane \nWatch is now in effect for that region. Tropical Storm conditions \ncould reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday, making further \npreparations difficult. A storm surge will be possible, especially \nin areas onshore winds.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja\nCalifornia Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n\n3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of \nthe northwest coast of Mexico for the next several days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0300Z 17.4N 110.1W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.8N 111.4W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 19.0N 112.8W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.6N 113.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 22.6N 113.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 60H  28/1200Z 24.6N 113.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 26.3N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 29.8N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n120H  01/0000Z 31.6N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n \n"}