{"id": "1213467284243447815", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T03:00:00Z", "msg": "324\nWTPZ41 KNHC 260253\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nOdalys remains a powerful major hurricane, though satellite imagery \nis beginning to show signs of weakening. The eye of Odalys remains \nragged, embedded within deep convection with cloud top temperatures \naround -70 to -75 C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity CI \nnumber from TAFB was 6.0/115 kt but the final-T number was 5.5/102 \nkt. This generally aligns with most UW-CIMSS objective satellite \nintensity estimates, which range from 98 to 106 kt. Based on a blend \nof these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/4 kt, \ncontinues to be steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level \ntrough to its west and a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The \nhurricane is forecast to continue on this trajectory over the next \nday or so as the aforementioned trough amplifies over the eastern \nPacific. By early next week, Odalys is anticipated to abruptly turn \nto the east and southeast as the increasingly shallow circulation \nbecomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest track guidance \nclosely follows the reliable HCCA aid, pulls the track slightly \nfarther west ahead of the sharp, easterly turn, and mirrors the \nprevious advisory for the remainder of the forecast period.\n \nOver the weekend, Odalys is expected to encounter a progressively \nhostile environment, marked by moderate to strong vertical wind \nshear and an increase in mid-level dry air. These conditions will \nlikely make it difficult for Odalys to sustain organized convection \nlater this weekend, and the updated forecast shows Odalys as a \npost-tropical cyclone at 60 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF \nsimulated satellite imagery.\n \nDistant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported \ninto the southwestern United States this weekend and early next \nweek, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash \nflood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather \nPrediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0300Z 18.8N 123.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 19.6N 123.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 21.9N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 22.4N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  28/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  29/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0000Z 19.3N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}