{"id": "1213466203078557703", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T03:00:00Z", "msg": "279\nWTPA42 PHFO 260248\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Nolo Discussion Number  22\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nThe satellite appearance of Nolo has changed little since the last \nadvisory. However, WSR-88D radar data from South Point, Hawaii, \nindicates that the eye has contracted to a diameter of about 35 n \nmi. While this suggests some strengthening has occurred, the \nDoppler velocities have changed little since the last advisory. \nBased on a blend of earlier aircraft data, satellite intensity \nestimates, and radar velocities, the initial intensity is held at \n90 kt. Shear analyses show that Nolo is being affected by 10-15 kt \nof southeasterly shear, and this may be helping to advect dry air \ninto the circulation as seen in the radar data.\n\nThe initial motion is now 010/3. The guidance is in excellent \nagreement that Nolo should stall and then turn westward in the next \n12 h or so as mid- to upper-level ridge builds westward north of \nthe Hawaiian Islands.  The track guidance has shifted southward \nsince the last advisory, and the first 60 h of the forecast track \nare near the northern edge of the guidance envelope.  After 60 h, \nthe hurricane is forecast to turn northward between the ridge and \nthe mid- to upper-level trough currently northwest of Hawaii. By \n120 h, there is some divergence in the track guidance due to how \nthe tropical cyclone and the trough interact. For now, this portion \nof the forecast track is similar to the previous track.\n\nDue to the shear and the apparent dry air entrainment, the new \nintensity forecast has a slower development rate during the first \n12-24 h. From 24-72 h, the HAFS models continue to forecast Nolo to \nbecome a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS models forecast no \nstrengthening whatsoever, and instead they forecast the cyclone to \nslowly weaken through the forecast period.  This portion of the \nintensity forecast will lean towards the HAFS models, but it has \nincreasing uncertainty. After 72 h, weakening is expected due\nto the forecast strong southwesterly shear east of the \naforementioned trough.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii\nthrough Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the\nisland. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the Big\nIsland tonight with hurricane conditions possible on Saturday,\nparticularly in areas of steep terrain. Residents should follow\nadvice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do\nso. \n \n2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and\nflooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in\nboth coverage and intensity late today. Periods of heavy rain are\nexpected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the\nweekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are\npossible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern\nand southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the\nremainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with\nisolated flooding possible.\n \n3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the\nBig Island's coastline into the weekend.\n \n4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where\ntropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.\nInterests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest\nforecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans\nin place. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and gusty \nwinds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the \nweekend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0300Z 16.9N 155.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.1N 155.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 17.1N 156.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 16.9N 157.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 16.9N 159.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  28/1200Z 17.7N 161.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 19.1N 163.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 22.0N 164.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 23.6N 165.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}