{"id": "1213463253349335047", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-26T03:00:00Z", "msg": "939\nWTNT42 KNHC 260233\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026\n200 AM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026\n \nASCAT-C data valid near 2230 UTC indicated that Gonzalo's\ncirculation has become poorly defined. At that time, the center of\nGonzalo was severely stretched by about 100 miles from southwest to\nnortheast. Although the ASCAT did not fully sample the area where\nconvection associated with Gonzalo is strongest, it did indicate\nthat the winds have generally decreased since yesterday. Based on\nthese data and the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, the intensity has been\nlowered to 40 kt. It is worth noting that if current trends\ncontinue and the center does not re-form under the convection,\nGonzalo could dissipate later this morning.\n\nGonzalo still appears to be moving northward, and should continue \non this track for the next day or so, though the track could jump \nto the northeast temporarily if the center re-forms nearer the deep \nconvection. Regardless, models indicate that the remaining \nconvection should become disorganized within the next 24 h, which \nwould cause the cyclone to become post-tropical. Given the \nenvironment that Gonzalo is moving into, which will consist of \nincreasing shear and cool SSTs, this seems likely. Once it becomes a \nshallow cyclone, the remnants of Gonzalo are expected to meander \nslowly to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands for several days \nbefore dissipating near the middle of next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0300Z 16.9N  22.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 18.4N  22.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 19.8N  23.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.6N  23.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0000Z 21.1N  23.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/1200Z 21.5N  23.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/0000Z 21.8N  24.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0000Z 22.0N  24.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}