{"msg": "338\nAXNT20 KNHC 252326\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 43.0W at 25/2100 UTC\nor 930 nm WSW of the Azores, moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 17 ft are \noccurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 29N to 31N between 40W and 44W.\nA gradual turn toward the SW is expected over the next few days.\nSlow weakening is expected through the weekend. \nTropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 16.2N 22.7W at 25/2100\nUTC or 30 nm SSE of Sal Cabo Verde, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind\nspeed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft.\nNumerous strong convection is noted from 12N to 21N between 17W\nand 22W. A NNW to N motion is expected to continue, with a slower\nforward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the center will\npast near the northeastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands\ntonight and move north of the islands Sat. Little change in\nstrength is expected tonight, with weakening expected to begin Sat\nand continue through the weekend. Swells generated by the storm \nare expected to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay\nand Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nVery Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from 31N70W into the\ncentral Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. Swell generated by\ngales N of the region is propagating into the area N of the cold\nfront, causing seas of 8 to 13 ft. The highest seas of 12 to 13 ft\nare along and N of 30N, W of 73W, and in the vicinity of the Gulf\nStream within 60 NM of the coast of Florida N of 28N. Buoy 41010 \nat 28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 11 ft seas\nas of 1520 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough \nseas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to\ndecrease. \nHeavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep-\nlayer trough over northern Central America, combined with \nabundant low- level moisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across \nportions of the region, particularly over Guatemala, Honduras, and\nChiapas, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in these areas will creater the\npotential for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides \nthrough Sat, before the system responsible for the rainfall moves \nwestward into the Pacific. Please refer to local weather services \nas well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center\nat https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for \nmore information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 58W, from 08N to 17N, moving\nwest around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of\nthis wave from 10N to 13N between 53W and 58W. \nA western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 78W, S of 14N,\nextending to the Panama-Colombia border, moving west at around 15\nkt. Scattered moderate convection has developed S of 12N between\n74W and 82W in association with this wave. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 16N17W to 12N22W to 08N36W. The\nITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. Aside from convection\nassociated with Gonzalo and the tropical waves, both described\nin sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted N of the\nITCZ from 09N to 13N between 48W and 53W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak cold front extends from the NW coast of Cuba to near\n26N87W, then becomes stationary and continues NW to the Upper\nTexas coast. Moderate NE winds are N of this boundary, with gentle\nE winds to the south. Seas N of the front are 3 to 5 ft, with 1 to\n3 ft seas south. \nFor the forecast, the front will dissipate into Sat. Moderate to \nlocally fresh winds will follow the front through tonight. \nElsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat \nnight. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. \n \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico into\nSat.\nA weaker than usual pressure gradient is translating to gentle to\nmoderate trades over most of the basin, with the exception of\nfresh east winds offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas\nare 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW,\nand 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the continued weak pressure will support \nmoderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle \nto moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over \nthe NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical\nStorms Fay and Gonzalo, and on significant swell propagating\nsouthward into waters offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas. \nOtherwise, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection N of \n22N between 68W to 76W, ahead of a cold front that extends from \n31N70W to the NW coast of Cuba. SW winds in this zone are fresh to\nlocally strong. Behind the front, moderate to fresh N winds \nprevail. To the east, as surface trough that extends from 26N56W \nto 24N64W is inducing scattered moderate convection from 22N to \n25N between 55W and 60W. A belt of moderate trades dominate waters\nbetween 11N and 23N, otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. \nModerate seas are present across most of the basin. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will\nreach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Sat night, then weaken and\nstall. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected \nalong the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to \nvery rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before \nstarting to decrease. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213426575068463111", "issued": "2026-09-25T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213426575068463111"}