{"msg": "434\nAXPZ20 KNHC 252132\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Polo is centered near 17.2N 109.2W, or about 290 nm SW\nof Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, at 25/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt.\nEstimated minimum central pressure is 913 mb. Maximum sustained \nwind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas are\ncurrently around 41 ft (13 meters). Numerous strong convection is\nnoted within 120 nm of the center. Polo is forecast to turn to\nthe northwest Sat, north on Sun, then NE Mon. On the forecast\ntrack, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur early\nnext week.  Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\nHurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible\ntoday, but some weakening is expected this weekend. Polo is\nforecast to approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane\nearly next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall \nassociated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service \nStorm Total Rainfall Graphic available at \nhurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will continue to affect the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will \nspread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the\nBaja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal \nflooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 18.3N 123.6W at 25/2100 UTC,\nmoving north-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with\ngusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are currently around 34 ft (11\nmeters). Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the\ncenter. Odalys is expected to continue moving generally northward\ninto Sat, before turning NE. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on\nthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is\nforecast to begin tonight, then continue through early next week. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nLow pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low \npressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or \nearly next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward \nto northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and \nsouthwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical\nformation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation\nthrough the next 7 days. The broader circulation, deep moisture,\nand instability associated with this system is already producing\nheavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Southern\nMexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday night across\nportions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well as\nChiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N91W to 14N95W.\nIt then resumes SW of Hurricane Odalys near 12N127W and continues\nto 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N\nto 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W.\n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as low pressure\ndeveloping south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is bringing very\nheavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. \nAway from Hurricane Polo, modest high pressure building southward\nis leading to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California and\nnearshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh\ngap winds are developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and broad\ncyclonic flow offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas has increased to\nmoderate intensity. \nRough seas from Polo dominate waters W of 103N and S of 26N, with\nmoderate seas elsewhere in offshore waters. In the Gulf of\nCalifornia, northern waters have slight seas, with seas of 4 to \n7 ft building in the central and southern gulf.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.2N 109.2W at 2\nPM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are \n155 kt with gusts to 190 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n913 mb. Hurricane Polo will move to 17.4N 110.6W Sat morning, \n18.2N 112.1W Sat afternoon, and 19.6N 113.2W Sun morning. Polo \nwill then reach 21.5N 113.7W Sun afternoon, 23.4N 113.6W Mon \nmorning, and 25.1N 112.8W Mon afternoon. Polo will weaken to a \ntropical storm while moving inland over Sonora, Mexico, Tue \nafternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 18.3N 123.6W at 2 PM PDT, \nand is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure\nis 951 mb. Odalys will move to 18.9N 123.5W Sat morning, 20.0N \n123.4W Sat afternoon, and 21.1N 123.3W Sun morning. Odalys will \nweaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 122.9W Sun afternoon, then \nbecome post- tropical and move to 22.4N 122.3W Mon morning. Post-\ntropical cyclone Odalys weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N \n121.6W Mon afternoon. The remnants of Odalys will be west of the \nRevillagigedo Islands Tue afternoon. An area of low pressure is \nexpected to form within the next day or two to the south of the \nGulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form late this weekend or early next week while the \nsystem moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel\nto the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a \nmedium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high \nchance of tropical formation through the next 7 days.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate SE winds have developed offshore Guatemala, flowing\ntoward lower pressure S of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise,\nmainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail,\nexcept slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. \nFor the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the \narea, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and\nlocally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through \nthe weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to \nprevail across the offshore waters through early next week, along\nwith mostly moderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. \nOutside of these hurricanes, and increasing pressure gradient due\nto high pressure building southward is leading to moderate to\nfresh NE winds N of 14N and W of 124W. Otherwise, mainly gentle\nwinds dominate. Moderate seas prevail, although the\naforementioned hurricanes are causing a broad area of rough seas\nfrom 09N to 26N, E of 133W. \nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.2N 109.2W at 2\nPM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are \n155 kt with gusts to 190 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n913 mb. Hurricane Polo will move to 17.4N 110.6W Sat morning, \n18.2N 112.1W Sat afternoon, and 19.6N 113.2W Sun morning. Polo \nwill then reach 21.5N 113.7W Sun afternoon, 23.4N 113.6W Mon \nmorning, and 25.1N 112.8W Mon afternoon. Polo will weaken to a \ntropical storm while moving inland over Sonora, Mexico, Tue \nafternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 18.3N 123.6W at 2 PM PDT, \nand is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure\nis 951 mb. Odalys will move to 18.9N 123.5W Sat morning, 20.0N \n123.4W Sat afternoon, and 21.1N 123.3W Sun morning. Odalys will \nweaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 122.9W Sun afternoon, then \nbecome post- tropical and move to 22.4N 122.3W Mon morning. Post-\ntropical cyclone Odalys weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N \n121.6W Mon afternoon. The remnants of Odalys will be west of the \nRevillagigedo Islands Tue afternoon. An area of low pressure is \nexpected to form within the next day or two to the south of the \nGulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form late this weekend or early next week while the \nsystem moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel\nto the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a \nmedium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high \nchance of tropical formation through the next 7 days.\nLooking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form \nabout 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the \nweekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression could form \nearly next week. The system is forecast to move generally\nnortheastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213404226109636615", "issued": "2026-09-25T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213404226109636615"}