{"id": "1213393345616642055", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T21:00:00Z", "msg": "799\nWTNT42 KNHC 252037\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026\n800 PM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nThe overall structure of Gonzalo has changed little today.  The \ncirculation is elongated from the north-northeast to south-southwest \nwith the advisory position set as a mean between a couple of \nlow-level vorticity centers on either end of the elongated center. \nDeep convection remains displaced well to the northeast of the \nestimated center due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear.  \nObjective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have not \nchanged much, therefore the initial intensity remains 45 kt, in line \nwith the earlier scatterometer data.\n \nGonzalo has been moving more northward today with an initial motion \nestimate of 350/10 kt.  The storm is expected to be steered \nnorthward to north-northwestward during the next couple of days \nbetween a mid-level trough to its north and a ridge over western \nAfrica.  Gonzalo's forward speed is expected to decrease as the \nsystem becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the weaker \nlow-level flow. The new official track forecast is similar to the \nprevious advisory and lies closest to the latest Google Deep Mind \nensemble prediction.\n \nThe vertical shear over Gonzalo is forecast to increase \nsignificantly on Saturday and with gradually decreasing sea surface \ntemperatures along the forecast track, weakening should begin by \nSaturday morning.  Simulated satellite imagery from the global \nmodels indicate that Gonzalo will lose organized deep convection in \n24 to 36 hours, and the new NHC forecast shows the system becoming a \npost-tropical remnant low by Sunday morning. The intensity forecast \nis in best agreement with the typically reliable consensus aids. \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the\nCabo Verde Islands tonight.\n \n2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern portions of\nthe Cabo Verde Islands and the western coast of Africa between\nGuinea-Bissau to Senegal through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding\nwill be possible along the Africa coast with some isolated flash\nflood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/2100Z 16.2N  22.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 17.6N  22.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 19.0N  23.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 20.0N  23.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  27/1800Z 20.6N  23.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/0600Z 21.2N  24.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1800Z 21.7N  24.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1800Z 22.0N  25.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}