{"id": "1213393050742849543", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T21:00:00Z", "msg": "775\nWTPZ41 KNHC 252036\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nSatellite imagery shows Odalys is still a powerful major hurricane, \nthough the satellite presentation is not quite as impressive as \nearlier today. The ragged eye of Odalys is surrounded by a ring of \ndeep convection with cold cloud tops of -65 to -75 deg C. Earlier \nWSF-M passive microwave imagery from 1437 UTC showed a closed ring \nin the 37 GHz channel, while the 89 GHz image indicated the \nmid-level eyewall was open to the southwest. The latest Dvorak \nclassification from TAFB was a 5.5/6.0, while recent AiDT, D-MINT, \nand D-PRINT estimates have fallen to around 105 kt. Based on a blend \nof these data, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to \n110 kt. The wind radii for Odalys were adjusted based on recent \nRCM-1 synthetic aperture radar data.\n \nOdalys is moving slowly north-northeastward (030/4 kt) within the\nflow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and a\nmid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to\nmove northward during the next day or two as the aforementioned\ntrough amplifies over the eastern Pacific. By Monday, Odalys is\nforecast to slow down and turn abruptly to the east and southeast as\nthe increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by the\nlow-level flow. The latest track guidance shows a sharper turn than\nthe previous cycle in the 60-96 h time frame, and the NHC track\nforecast has been adjusted to reflect this trend. Overall, the NHC\nforecast remains close to the skillful HCCA aid.\n \nSouthwesterly shear is expected to markedly increase over the next\ncouple of days, while Odalys' forecast track should take the system\nover cooler waters by Sunday. As a result, a faster weakening trend\nis forecast over the weekend, with Odalys likely to lose organized\nconvection and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in 48-60 h. The\nupdated NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the Google\nDeepMind ensemble mean and lies slightly above the HCCA and IVCN\nmulti-model aids.\n \nDistant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported\ninto the southwestern United States this weekend and early next\nweek, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash\nflood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/2100Z 18.3N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 20.0N 123.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 21.1N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 22.0N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  28/1800Z 21.9N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1800Z 19.9N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}