{"id": "1213392552504459271", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T21:00:00Z", "msg": "754\nWTNT41 KNHC 252033\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n900 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026\n\nThe convective organization for Fay has taken a turn downward as \nwind shear and dry air have started to impact the system. The most \nrecent TAFB Dvorak fix was a 2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity \nfrom UW-CIMSS is in the range of 37-47 kt. Therefore, the initial \nintensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe cyclone is expected to gradually weaken as the shear and dry \nair build over the cyclone. The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS \nintensity guidance indicates that the northerly shear will continue \nto increase over the next several hours. The wind shear will make \nit easier for the dry air to penetrate the core of the cyclone and \nhinder the development of convection. The simulated ECMWF and GFS \nsatellite imagery show that Fay loses its convection towards the \nend of the weekend, at which point it would become a post-tropical \nremnant low. However it is possible that this could occur sooner \ngiven the intensity of the wind shear being over 20 kt and mid-level \nrelative humidity less than 40 percent. The current NHC intensity \nforecast is in line with the guidance suite including the HCCA and \nGDMI forecast aids.\n\nFay's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/4 kt \nas the storm is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the \ncentral Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to continue on a \nwest-southwest to southwest heading through the the forecast period \nas the storm continues to weaken and become a vertically shallow \nremnant low steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track \nforecast is similar to the previous forecast, however the forward \nspeed has been increased. The current forecast is still in good \nagreement with the GDMI ensemble mean and HCCA corrected consensus \naids. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/2100Z 29.8N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 29.7N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 29.5N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 29.1N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 28.5N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/0600Z 27.6N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1800Z 26.9N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1800Z 26.1N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}