{"msg": "582\nAXNT20 KNHC 251555\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay is centered near 30.1N 42.5W at 25/1500 UTC\nor 900 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50\nkt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are occurring within \n60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered \nstrong convection is noted from 29N-31N between 40W-44W. A \ngradual turn to the west-southwest then southwest at a slower \nforward speed is expected over the next few of days. Some slight \nstrengthening is possible over the next few hours. Gradual \nweakening, however, is still expected through the weekend.\nTropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.7N 22.6W at 25/1200\nUTC or 100 nm E of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving\nNNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.\nMaximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.\nPeak seas are near 20 ft and a 0900 UTC altimeter pass indicated\nseas to 15 ft between and just to the north of the eastern Cabo\nVerde Islands. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends \nfrom 10N-21N between 17W-22W. The NNW motion is expected to \ncontinue over the next few days, with a slower forward speed this \nweekend. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over \nportions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A \ngradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight and continue \nthrough the weekend. Swells generated b y the storm are expected \nto affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells \nare likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay\nand Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nVery Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from 31N72W across the \nN Bahamas and to the Florida Straits. Seas are 8 to 13 ft \nnorthwest of a line from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida \npeninsula north of 26N. The highest seas of 12-13 ft are occurring\nnorth of 30N between 76W-80W as well as up to 12 ft are over the \nGulf Stream within 60 NM of the Florida peninsula north of 28N.\nBuoy 41010 at 28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is \nshowing 11 ft seas as of 1520 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and \nrough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat \nmorning, before starting to decrease. \nHeavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to \nupper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm\nsea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are \npresent. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical \nmoisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, \nsupporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still \nsome uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest \nrainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme \nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, \nwestern Honduras, and El Salvador. Heavy rainfall across these \nregions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash \nflooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as\nwell as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center at\nhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving \nwest at 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with\nit at the time.\nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N \ninto central Colombia, moving westward at 15-20 kt. There is no \nsignificant convection associated with it at the time.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 16N17W\nthrough Tropical Storm Gonzalo to 08N34W. The ITCZ begins at\n08N134W to 09N56W. See T.S. Gonzalo in the Special Features \nsection for information on convection. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 27N89W,\nwhere it becomes stationary to the E Texas coast. Winds across the\nGulf are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. No significant deep\nconvection is occurring this morning over the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will move E of the Gulf tonight \ninto Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front \nthrough tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail \nthrough Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early \nnext week.\n \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on\nupper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is\nexpected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America through tomorrow.\nThe cold front north of the Caribbean has reduced the pressure\ngradient across the Caribbean with trades only gentle to moderate\nlocally fresh. Seas are 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is\noccurring over the SW Caribbean south of 11N due to the monsoon\ntrough from the northeast Pacific.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure will support moderate to fresh \ntrades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds \nelsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean \nwith moderate seas elsewhere.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. \nA cold front extends from 31N72W across the N Bahamas and to the\nFlorida Straits. Winds ahead of the front north of 26N are SW\nfresh to locally strong, while winds behind the front north of 27N\nare N fresh to locally strong. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northwest of a\nline from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida peninsula north\nof 26N. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is\noccurring within 300 NM east of the front north of 23N. There also\nis a surface trough extending from 24N64W to 25N55W with scattered\nmoderate convection occurring from 22N-25N between 55W-60W. The\nweak pressure gradient between ridging with the Bermuda-Azores \nHigh well north of our waters to lower pressure along the ITCZ is \nforcing only gentle to moderate trades over the tropical and\nsubtropical north Atlantic. Seas away from the two tropical storms\nand cold front are 3-7 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near\nBermuda to near central Cuba Sat night before starting to weaken.\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along \nthe frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very \nrough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before \nstarting to decrease.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213337904970694663", "issued": "2026-09-25T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213337904970694663"}