{"msg": "422\nAXPZ20 KNHC 251543\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nMajor Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 108.5W, or about 290\nnm SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, at 25/1500 UTC, moving west at\n10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas \nare currently around 44 ft (13.5 m). Polo is revealing a clear \neye feature on satellite imagery. A solid ring of very cold cloud\ntop temperatures (colder than -75 degree Celsius surrounds the \neye. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the\ncenter. Polo is forecast to maintain its present motion today, \nfollowed by a gradual turn to the northwest on Sat and north on \nSun. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Monday. On the \nforecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur \non Mon. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible over\nthe next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening should begin by Sat. For a \ncomplete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, \nplease see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall \nGraphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf\nSwells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of \nsouthwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will \nspread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and \ntoward Baja California Sur today and into the weekend. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, \nand coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nHurricane Odalys is centered near 17.9N 123.7W at 25/1500 UTC,\nmoving north-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with\ngusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently around 37 ft (11.5 m).\nSatellite imagery reveals that Odaly's eye has become much \nbetter defined during the overnight hours. Numerous strong\nconvection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Odalys is \nexpected to turn to the north over the next couple of days. \nOdalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane \nWind Scale. This intensity is expected to persist overnight, \nbefore gradual weakening is forecast heading into the weekend. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\n  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \n  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.\nLow pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low \npressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the \nsouth of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or \nearly next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward \nto northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and \nsouthwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical\nformation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation\nthrough the next 7 days. \nHeavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low\npressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into\nCentral America and adjacent southern Mexico through tonight,\nleading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. \nHeavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, \nthe mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of \nChiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life- \nthreatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local \nweather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather\nPrediction Center for more information. As this low pressure \nmoves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early \nnext week, it has a potential for tropical development.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure in  \nnorthwest Colombia westward to across the southwestern Caribbean\nSea, to across northern Costa Rica, then to 10N85W to to 11.5N90.5W\nand to 14N95W. It resumes SW of Odalys at 12N127W to 12N133W and \nto beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is \nfrom 06N to 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 135W-140W, and \nwithin 60 nm south of the trough between 129W-135W.\n \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\non Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys located well to the \nwest-southwest of the offshore waters, and on low pressure\nforecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec, that has\nthe potential for tropical development as early as this weekend.\nAway from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 \nft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of\nthe waters away from Polo as indicated in overnight satellite\naltimeter data passes.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.3N \n108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves\nto 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W Sat afternoon\nwith maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.0N \n113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts \n135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to near 23.3N \n113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts \n115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W late Mon \nnight with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Hurricane \nOdalys is near 17.6N 124.0W, or about 850 nm west-southwest of the \nsouthern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast \nat 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, \nand the minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Odalys will move to near \n18.0N 123.7W this afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with \nmaximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then \nweaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with \nmaximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to \nbecome post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 22.5N \n122.1W late Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is \nexpected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions should be \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nexpected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system \nmoves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the \ncoast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Hazardous marine \nconditions of very rough seas are expected over the Baja California \nwaters this weekend into early next week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLight to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 09N,\nand mostly gentle to moderate south-soutwhest winds south of \n09N as seen in overnight available satellite scatterometer data \npasses. Locally rough seas are over the western offshore waters \nof Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near southwestern \nMexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas \nnearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos \nIslands. \nFor the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail \nacross the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly\nmoderate seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nMajor Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to \nthe west-southwest of the offshore waters.\nOutside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas\nare 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.\nFor the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to move near \nnear 17.3N 108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken\nas it moves to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W \nSat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, \nto near 20.0N 113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds \n110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to \nnear 23.3N 113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 \nkt gusts 115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W \nlate Mon night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt.\nHurricane Odalys is forecast to move to near 18.0N 123.7W this \nafternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with maximum \nsustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then \nweaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with \nmaximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to \nbecome post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near \n22.5N 122.1W late Sun night. Odalys will then weaken to a \nremnant low near 21.7N 121.2W early on Tue.\nFresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected to develop \nsouth of the monsoon trough over the weekend west of about 130W \nin response to developing broad area of low pressure well to the\neast-sooutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Seas are expected to \nsteadily build with these winds, possibly reaching a range of 7 \nto 10 ft.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form within\nthe next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. \nAfterward environmental conditions should be favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to \nform late this weekend or early next week as the system moves \nslowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast\nof southern and southwestern Mexico.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213335559600734215", "issued": "2026-09-25T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213335559600734215"}