{"id": "1213324514862923783", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T15:00:00Z", "msg": "083\nWTPZ41 KNHC 251447\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n800 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nOdalys has rapidly intensified this morning, and the conventional\nsatellite presentation consists of a 30 nmi 5 deg C irregular eye \nwith inner core convection cloud tops of -80 deg C.  The wind \npattern aloft has improved since yesterday, with apparent dual \noutflow channels located over the northeast and southwest quadrants. \nThe Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS objective \nintensity techniques support holding the initial intensity at 115 \nkt.\n \nOver the weekend, Odalys should encounter a progressively \ninhibiting surrounding atmospheric environment and decreasing \noceanic temperatures.  Accordingly, the cyclone should gradually \nweaken, lose its organized convection late this weekend, and become \na post-tropical cyclone while maintaining gale-force winds.  The NHC \nintensity forecast is bumped slightly upward due to the rapid \nintensification period, and is just above the HFIP HCCA and near \nthe Google DeepMind ensemble guidance.\n \nOdalys' initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or \n030/5 kt.  By early Saturday, the cyclone should turn northward, \nmoving in the southerly steering flow provided by an amplifying \nmid- to upper-level tropospheric trough approaching the west coast \nof the U.S. and the Baja California peninsula.  By early next week, \nan increasing influence from Hurricane Polo's horizontal wind field \nis expected to induce a relatively sharp turn eastward while the \ncyclone continues to weaken.  By day 4, Odalys is forecast to \nturn southeastward within the southwestern peripheral flow of \nPolo and reduce in forward speed.  Very few adjustments were made \nto the previous advisory, and the new track forecast lies close to \nthe better-performing HCCA and GDMI aids.\n \nMoisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance\ninto the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may\nindirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in\nthe region.  See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center\nfor more information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 18.4N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 22.1N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  28/0000Z 22.8N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1200Z 20.9N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1200Z 18.8N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}