{"id": "1213324069204262919", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T15:00:00Z", "msg": "991\nWTNT42 KNHC 251445\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026\n200 PM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nGonzalo remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the deep convection \nlocated northeast of the elongated center.  ASCAT data from around \n1100 UTC revealed a large area of tropical-storm force winds \nlocated over the northeastern portion of the circulation with peak \nwinds of around 45 kt.  Those peak winds were the basis for \nincreasing the intensity to 45 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate \nadvisory, and the initial intensity for this advisory remains \nunchanged.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/9 kt. A \nmid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic is expected to steer \nGonzalo north-northwestward to northward today with the center \npassing near or over the easternmost Cabo Verde Islands. A \nnorth-northwestward heading should then continue over the weekend \nwith some reduction in forward speed as the system weakens and \nbecomes more vertically shallow.  The updated NHC track forecast is \nsimilar to the previous advisory and lies closest to the HFIP \ncorrected consensus aid. \n\nLittle change in strength is expected today as Gonzalo passes near \nor over the Cabo Verde Islands.  The shear is forecast to increase \nto more than 30 kt later tonight and become even more belligerent \nover the weekend.  This should cause weakening to begin by Saturday \nmorning with a continued gradual spin down through the weekend.  As \nthe SSTs cool along the track and strong shear continues, the \nsystem is likely to lose organized deep convection by late Sunday \nor Sunday night and become post-tropical. The NHC intensity \nforecast is close to a blend of the Google Deep Mind and HFIP \ncorrected consensus aids. \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the \nCabo Verde Islands into tonight. \n \n2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern portions of \nthe Cabo Verde Islands and the western coast of Africa between \nGuinea-Bissau to Senegal through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding \nwill be possible along the Africa coasts with some isolated flash \nflood concerns for the eastern portions of Cabo Verde. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/1500Z 15.1N  22.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 16.5N  22.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 18.1N  23.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 19.3N  23.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N  24.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  28/0000Z 20.8N  24.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1200Z 21.3N  25.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1200Z 21.8N  25.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1200Z 22.2N  25.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}