{"id": "1213322548602273799", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T15:00:00Z", "msg": "759\nWTNT41 KNHC 251437\nTCDAT1\n \nTropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026\n300 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nConvection continues to increase mostly on the northern side of \nFay, while resisting dry air entrainment based as displayed on the \nvisible and water vapor imagery. The lastest TAFB Dvorak fix came in \nat T2.5/45 kt, however a recent SAR pass found peak winds around 55 \nkt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are \nin the range of 37-42 kt. A recent ASCAT pass showed that some of \nthe peak wind vectors were around 40 kt, but given the small size \nof Fay, it is possible that the ASCAT is undersampling the peak \nwinds. Based on a compromise of all the available data, the initial \nintensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. \n \nAdditional strengthening is still possible over the next several \nhours, as Fay is in a region of weak deep-layer shear and \nmarginally favorable thermodynamic conditions. The statistical \nGFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that northerly wind \nshear will increase tonight, which should help force dry air \ninto the cyclone. Therefore, Fay should gradually weaken through \nthe period, and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone during the \nweekend. The current NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement \nwith the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.\n \nFay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 275/3 kt and is \nsteered by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. \nThe initial position for Fay has been adjusted to the left of the \nprevious advisory and the center of the cyclone appears to have \nreformed to the northeast.  By Saturday, a gradual turn toward the \nwest-southwest and southwest is forecast while Fay weakens and \nbecome a vertically shallow remnant low steered by the low-level \nflow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one \nand lies close to the GDMI ensemble mean and the HCCA corrected \nconsensus aid.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/1500Z 30.1N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 30.1N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 30.0N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 29.8N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 29.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 60H  28/0000Z 29.0N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1200Z 28.5N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1200Z 27.8N  46.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}