{"msg": "435\nAXNT20 KNHC 251059\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1040 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.8W at 25/0900 UTC\nor 930 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45\nkt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 17 ft are occurring within \n45 nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is \nnoted from 28N to 31N between 39W and 46W. Some slight \nstrengthening is possible over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, \ngradual weakening is expected through the weekend.\nTropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.2N 22.4W at 25/0900\nUTC or 120 nm ESE of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving\nNNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.\nMaximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak\nseas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection\nextends from 10N to 23N between 17W and 22W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is from 06N to 30N between 17W and 29W. On the \nforecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the \nCabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Some strengthening is \npossible today, with a gradual weakening trend forecast to begin \nthis weekend. Swells generated by the storm are expected to \naffect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay\nand Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nHeavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to \nupper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm\nsea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are \npresent. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical \nmoisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, \nsupporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still \nsome uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest \nrainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme \nsoutheastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, \nwestern Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as \nwell as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, \nscattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms \nare in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as across the offshore waters\nof Panama and Costa Rica. Heavy rainfall across these regions \nwill create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding \nand landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as \nthe International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving \nwest at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated\nwith it at the time.\nA tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N \ninto central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. Heavy showers and\ntstms are occurring over the Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N25W to 08N37W to 11N48W. There\nis no well defined ITCZ further west at this time. See T.S.\nGonzalo in the Special Features section for information on\nconvection.  \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA cold front extends from SE Louisiana to Cape Coral, FL. Ahead of\nthis front, a weakening cold front extends from the Straits of\nFlorida NW to Houston, Texas while a surface trough and a low are \nover the E Bay of Campeche, generating some scattered showers.\nModerate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the wake or behind\nthese frontal boundaries while seas are slight to moderate.\nFor the forecast, the cold front will merge with a weakening cold\nfront over the SE Gulf later today and then move E of the Gulf \ntonight into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the \nfront through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will \nprevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into \nearly next week.\n \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for information on\nupper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is\nexpected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of \nCentral America into the weekend.\nModerate to fresh trades prevail across the south-central basin\nalong with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to\nmoderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient due to the passage of \na frontal boundary N of the area will support moderate to fresh \ntrades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds \nelsewhere. A middle to upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean \nwill support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over \nthat region through the weekend.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. \nA dissiapting stationary front extends from near 31N72W to the \nStraits of Florida. A reinforcing cold front is across the NW \nwaters from 31N75W to near Stuart, Florida. Heavy showers and\ntstms are ahead of these boundaries and a 1011 mb low centered\nnear 28N75W. These showers extends as far as 66W, including the\nGreat Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A\nbroad surface ridge covers the remainder central and eastern\nsubtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is near the SW\nperiphery of the ridge, extending from 26N54W to 22N60W, which is\ngenerating scattered showers from 21N to 28N between 51W and 59W.\nFresh to strong N to NE winds follow the frontal boundaries while\nmainly moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the boundaries to\n63W. Rough seas to 13 ft are behind the front. Moderate or weaker\nwinds and moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropical waters,\nexcept in the vicinity of Fay. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will merge \nwith a trailing cold front and then shift eastward, reaching from\nnear Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting \nto weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are \nexpected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and \nincreasing seas will follow the front through today, before \ndecreasing on Sat.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1213279598782480391", "issued": "2026-09-25T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1213279598782480391"}