{"id": "1213255509431943175", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-25T09:00:00Z", "msg": "932\nWTPZ41 KNHC 250856\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Odalys Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026\n200 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026\n \nOdalys's eye structure has become much better defined on satellite \nimagery since the last advisory. The latest objective Dvorak \nintensity analyses from UW-CIMSS estimates Odalys's strength to \nbe around 100 kt, while TAFB's subjective analysis rated the storm \nat 5.5/102 kt. Given Odalys's improved satellite presentation and \nthese estimates, the initial intensity was raised to 100 kt. \n\nThe initial motion has shifted toward the northeast, or at 040/5 kt. \nOdalys's trajectory is becoming increasingly influenced by a mid- to \nupper-level trough to its north-northwest, which, combined with its \nlocation on the eastern flank of the east Pacific subtropical high, \nshould drive an almost due north motion over the next couple of \ndays. Forecast models continue to exhibit large discrepancies in \ntrack after 48 h as Odalys's forward motion decreases and Hurricane \nPolo's wind field becomes an increasing influence. The overall trend \nacross models, however, is to turn Odalys to the north sooner, so \nthe latest NHC track forecast reflects this, following a blend of \nHCCA and GDMI and thus shifting the track to the left from the \nprevious forecast.\n\nGiven Odalys's improved presentation on satellite imagery, the \nintensity forecast was left relatively steady through the first 24 \nh. However, the storm is expected to encounter a hostile \nenvironment shortly thereafter, characterized by increasing \nvertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and cooler SSTs. As a \nresult, a steady weakening trend is expected heading into the \nweekend, with Odalys forecast to become post tropical by the end of \nthe weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast generally falls in \nline with the model consensus. \n\nMoisture from both Odalys and Polo will be carried a long distance\ninto the southwestern U.S. this weekend and early next week, and may\nindirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in\nthe region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for\nmore information.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0900Z 17.6N 124.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 18.0N 123.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 18.9N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 19.7N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 20.7N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  27/1800Z 21.9N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  28/0600Z 22.5N 122.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  29/0600Z 21.7N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}